COMMENTARY

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 9, 2008

Some bowl notes:

1. Which five bowls match up teams with at least 22 combined wins?
Answer: 24-BCS Championship, 24-Sugar, 22-Rose, 22-Poinsettia, and 22-GMAC

2. Which five bowls match up teams with the fewest combined wins (13)?
Answer: New Mexico, St. Petersburg, Hawaii, Independence, Papajohns.com

3. Which two bowls feature opponents that each have at least a current four game winning streak?
Answer: BCS Championship (Florida, 9, and Oklahoma 7) and Papajohns.com Bowl (Rutgers, 6, and N.C. State, 4)

4. Of the 68 bowl teams, how many have fewer than eight wins?
Answer: 27 (40%)

Major college football's bowl system may be part of what Philadelphia talk show host Michael Smirkonish calls the "sissification" of America. An element of that suggests that competition is unhealthy because someone has to lose. In the NCAA basketball tournament, 64 team end their season with a loss. With the bowls, 34 teams will finish with a feel-good win.

5. Which bowl game is the biggest stinker?
Answer: Many candidates: New Mexico, New Orleans, Hawaii, Motor City, Humanitarian, International; but the Independence Bowl has to take the prize: Louisiana Tech (7-5 in the SBC) vs. Northern Illinois (6-6 in the MAC).


SUNDAY, DECEMBER 7, 2008

What do the highest and lowest levels of college football have in common? Neither Division 1 FBS nor Junior Colleges really settle their championship on the playing field. Florida (deserving) and Oklahoma (undeserving) will play for the BCS Championship in Miami, and Butler County Community College beat Snow College yesterday, 37-30 in double overtime, to win the Junior College championship. JUCO can certainly be forgiven since their schools lack sufficient funds to conduct a full playoff, but the major schools are rolling in money. The BCS system, while better than no system at all, robs the fans of a true championship.

In the meantime, the FBS is getting what it deserves this year - a plethora of mediocre teams playing in the 34 bowls. The ACC is one of the big beneficiaries of the bowl glut--10 of its 12 schools will be in a bowl this year (only Duke and Virginia are staying home), proving that parity (or mediocrity) pays. The other five BCS conferences failed to provide enough teams to fill their bowl affiliations, and seven bowls must now go hunting among 7-5 or 6-6 non-BCS conferences for participants. Who outside of Louisiana, for example, will care about a possible Louisiana Tech-Louisiana Lafayette match-up in the Independence Bowl, which lost both of its BCS affiliates?

The December 23 Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego may be the only winner in the bowl shake-up caused by two few BCS teams to go around. It looks like the Poinsettia may bag an interesting Boise State (12-0) vs. Texas Christian (10-2) match-up, but in addition to the Independence, the Motor City, St. Petersburg, Hawaii, Papajohns.com, and Texas (probably 6-6 Notre Dame) are going begging. Seventy-two of the 120 FBS teams are bowl-eligible, thirteen of them at 6-6. At least nine of these will be playing in a bowl. Here are the thirteen decidely mediocre teams that "earned" a post-season award:

North Carolina State
ACC
A season-ending four-game winning streak, but needed an FCS win (William & Mary) to qualify
Notre Dame
Indep
1-5 against bowl-bound teams, beating only Navy, other opponents were a combined 14-46
Bowling Green
MAC
Only win over a bowl-eligible team was season-opening upset of Pitt
Northern Illinois
MAC
Only win over a bowl-eligible team was 6-6 Bowling Green
Colorado State
MWC
Only win over a bowl-eligible team was Houston; needed FCS win (6-5 Sacramento State)
Vanderbilt
SEC
Lost 6 of last 7; only bowl-eligible wins over South Carolina and Kentucky
Kentucky
SEC
Lost last three; no wins over bowl-eligible teams; beat one FCS team (5-7 Norfolk State)
Louisiana Lafayette
SBC
Only win over bowl-eligible team was 6-6 Arkansas State
Arkansas State
SBC
Only win over bowl-eligible team was 6-6 Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic
SBC
Only win over bowl-eligible team was 6-6 Louisiana-Lafayette
Memphis
CUSA
Only wins over bowl-eligible teams were 6-6 Arkansas State and 6-6 Southern Miss
Southern Mississippi
CUSA
3-3 against bowl-eligible teams, including win over C-USA champ, East Carolina
San Jose State
WAC
Lost 4 of last 5; only bowl-eligible win over 7-6 Hawaii; beat one FCS team (5-7) UCDavis by 3

Most deserving to stay home: Notre Dame (but they won't), San Jose State, Kentucky (neither will they), and Arkansas State. Most likely to stay home: Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, Arkansas State, and Florida Atlantic.

Why not a 16-team FBS playoff? Tradition, FBS officials say, but it's really money. President-elect Barack Obama's proposal involves shortening the regular season and playing a eight-team playoff, but that doesn't really solve much. There are 11 FBS champions--why not include them all? The Big 10 managed to play a full 12-game schedule before Thanksgiving, and the conference will conclude its 2009 schedule on November 21. If the other conferences dropped their off weeks, those with championship games (SEC, Big XII, ACC, C-USA, MAC could play those on Thanksgiving weekend, and a 16-team playoff could begin December 5. Somehow the other divisions manage a playoff. FCS includes 16 teams and will grow to 20 in 2010; D2 includes 24 teams; D3, 32 teams; and the NAIA, 16.

A 16-team FBS playoff requires 31 games, so only three current bowls would be left out. They could still conduct scintilating match-ups like Louisiana Tech-Louisiana Lafayette. A 16-team playoff would involve the 11 conference champions and five at-large teams. This year, the champs would be Virginia Tech (ACC), Penn State (Big 10), Oklahoma (Big XII), Cincinnati (Big East), East Carolina (C-USA), Buffalo (MAC), Utah (MWC), Southern Cal (Pac-10), Florida (SEC), Troy (SBC), and Boise State (WAC). At large candidates would include Texas, Texas Tech, Alabama, Ohio State, Texas Christian, Georgia Tech, Georgia, Pittsburgh, and Tulsa, I'd take the first five and seed them for these first-round games:

December 5
1 Florida vs. 16 Buffalo
2 Oklahoma vs. 15 East Carolina
3 Texas vs. 14 Troy
4 Southern Cal vs. 13 Texas Christian
5 Alabama vs. 12 Virginia Tech
6 Utah vs. 11 Cincinnati
7 Texas Tech vs. 10 Ohio State
8 Penn State vs. 9 Boise State

The second round might look like this
December 12
1 Florida vs. 8 Penn State
2 Oklahoma vs. 7 Texas Tech
3 Texas vs. 6 Utah
4 Southern Cal vs. 5 Alabama

By the way, if you want more bowls, I'd allow first and second round losers (12 teams) to play in bowls. Play as many bowls as you want between December 19 and January 1

Semifinals, January 2 (Yea, they're both re-matches. Shuffle 'em, if you like.)
1 Florida vs. 5 Alabama
2 Oklahoma vs. 3 Texas

TRUE National Championship, January 8
1 Florida vs. 3 Texas

The current REAL championships are nearing conclusion. Minnesota-Duluth meets Northwest Missouri in D2 next week, while Carroll College (MT) faces Sioux Falls in two weeks for the NAIA title. D1 FCS (James Madison-Montana and Richmond-Northern Iowa) and D3 (Mount Union-Wheaton and Wisconsin Whitewater-Mary Hardin Baylor) have their semi-finals next week. Carroll and Mount Union are defending champs, but the other divisions will have new kings.


MONDAY, DECEMBER 1, 2008

NCAA foortball: Where every game counts. What a joke! Only a Missouri upset of Oklahoma can correct the wrong done by the BCS computers.

Oregon's big win over Oregon State creates an opening in the Motor City Bowl opposite Ball State. If bowl officials have any brains (and league commitments allow), they could set up a Ball State-Boise State match-up for a mythical FBS non-BCS championship game. That would be a don't-miss game!

Come to think of it, here's a radical proposal for the BCS: Create a sixth BCS game matching the two top-rated non-BCS conference (MWC, WAC, MAC, SBC, C-USA) teams that don't otherwise get a BCS invite. This year, that would be Ball State and Boise State. No need to create a new bowl (34 is enough!), just rotate it among some of the existing bowls. Maybe the Cotton, Sun, and Gator.

BCS Bowls Projected Teams Notes
National Championship Game Oklahoma vs. Alabama-Florida winner In Oklahoma loses to Missouri in the Big XII championship, Texas is likely to be #2, but USC, the loser of the Alabama-Florida game, or even Utah could conceivably sneak in.
Fiesta Texas vs. Ohio State Oregon State's loss to Oregon put Southern Cal in the Rose Bowl and Ohio State in the BCS mix. If Missouri upsets Oklahoma, the Tigers would move into the Fiesta bowl slot.
Sugar Florida-Alabama loser vs. Utah  
Orange Boston College-Virginia Tech winner vs. Cincinnati  
Rose Penn State vs. Southern Cal  
Other Bowls Projected Teams Notes
Eaglebank Navy vs. Maryland Any of several ACC teams could fill this berth. The Terps, a traditional Navy opponent with proximity to D.C. seem most likely
New Mexico Nevada vs. Colorado State  
St. Petersburg Southern Mississippi vs. Louisville or ??? Louisville needs to beat Rutgers (seemingly unlikely) to become bowl-eligible; otherwise the new St. Pete Bowl will get stuck with a mediocre team from a non-BCS conference
Las Vegas Brigham Young vs. California  
New Orleans Troy vs. Houston  
Poinsettia Air Force vs. Fresno State The Pac-10 can't fill its Poinsettia slot, so it will go to a WAC team with the Bulldogs likely to be the choice.
Hawaii Hawaii vs. Florida Atlantic Unless Arizona State beats Arizona this week, the Pac-10 also can't fill this slot. The replacement is anybody's guess. Mine is Florida Atlantic.
Motor City Ball State vs. North Carolina State The Cardinals were the second biggest loser in Oregon's win over Oregon State. The Motor City usually gets a Big Ten team, but if Ohio State gets a BCS slot, there aren't enough bowl-eligible Big Ten teams. Unless Motor City officials can engineer a Boise State match-up, Ball State will get a lower echelon opponent or a surging N.C. State.
Meineke Car Care Clemson vs. Rutgers  
Champs Sports Wisconsin vs. Virginia Tech-Boston College loser  
Emerald Arizona vs. North Carolina  
Independence Louisiana Tech vs. Memphis This bowl is this year's biggest loser, having neither a Big XII or SEC (its two affiliations) team available, so it'll get two at-large teams. Because its played in Shreveport, I'm projecting two teams in close proximity.
Papajohns.com South Florida vs. Arkansas State Another bowl that lost a BCS affiliate--SEC in this case.
Alamo Missouri vs. Iowa  
Humanitarian Boise State vs. Clemson  
Holiday Oregon vs. Oklahoma State  
Texas West Virginia vs. Notre Dame The Irish don't deserve this good a bowl, but they draw fans.
Armed Forces Texas Christian vs. Rice A traditional match-up with proximity to boot!
Sun Nebraska vs. Oregon State  
Music City Vanderbilt vs. Miami (FL)  
Insight Kansas vs. Minnesota  
Chick-Fil-A Georgia Tech vs. South Carolina  
Outback Louisiana State vs. Northwestern  
Capital One Georgia vs. Michigan State  
Gator Florida State vs. Pittsburgh Let's hope Gator Bowl officials don't go for Notre Dame's big fan base.
Cotton Texas Tech vs. Mississippi  
Liberty Tulsa-East Carolina winner vs. Kentucky  
International Buffalo vs. Connecticut  
GMAC W, Michigan vs. Tulsa-East Carolina loser  



SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2008

So maybe you thought Oklahoma put on the biggest offensive show today? Check out the D2 playoff game between Abilene Christian and West Texas A&M. The 93-68 ACU win set a new standard the total points in a game, bettering the 40 year old regulation game record and the record for any game (overtime) set just a year ago when Chadron State beat ACU, 76-73 in overtime. The two teams also smashed the single-game total offense record, combining for 1,531 yards (the old record was a meager 1,369 yards).

In bowl chase news, Stanford, Illinois, and UNLV lost to be eliminated from the bowl-eligibility chase. There are now 64 teams eligible for the 68 slots, with 15 more on the edge, including Hawaii, which leads Idaho 28-10 at halftime as I write this. A win probably gets the Hawaii Bowl bid for the Rainbow Warriors.

Here's a summary of the conference races, including teams that could still find their way into a bowl.



TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 11, 2008

Bowl-eligible vs. bowl-worthy: There are now 60 "bowl-eligible" Bowl Subdivision teams (and 19 more one win away) for the NCAA's gluttonous total of 34 bowls, so it appears there will be no need to make any exceptions, but who is really bowl-worthy?
I'd suggest any team from a BCS conference that can't manage a winning record against FBS opposition, and any non-champion from a non-BCS conference that doesn't win at least seven games against FBS opponents, doesn't deserve a post-season reward.

Using that criteria, here's my list of bowl-worthy teams:
SEC (5) - Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and LSU
Big XII (6) - Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Nebraska
Big 10 (5) - Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan State, Northwestern, and Minnesota
Pac-10 (5) - Southern Cal, Oregon State, Oregon, Cal, and Arizona
ACC (5) - Florida State, North Carolina, Miami, Georgia Tech, and Boston College
Big East (4) - Pitt, Cincinnati, West Virginia, and perhaps Connecticut
MWC (4) - Utah, Brigham Young, Texas Christian, and Air Force
C-USA (3) - Tulsa, Rice, and Houston
MAC (3) - Ball State, Central Michigan, and Western Michigan
WAC (1) - Boise State
SBC (1) - Troy or Louisiana Lafayette

That's only 40-41 teams, and we wouldn't be watching games against a couple of 6-6 teams. As it stands, there will probably be a dozen or so 6-6 teams in bowls - and some of those from the lower echelon conferences.

With that in mind, if the NCAA were listening, I'd love to see a re-vamping playoff/bowl system that really rewards performance (and potentially, punishes futility). Leave the two non-BCS championship games (C-USA and MAC) in place and take the five eventual non-BCS champions along with the nine BCS conference/division champs (two each from the SEC, ACC, and Big XII; one each from the Big 10, Pac-10, Big East), add two at-large selections and hold a 16-team real BCS playoff. That's 15 games.

This year's teams might be:
SEC: Alabama (3) and Florida (2)
Big XII: Oklahoma/Texas Tech (1) and Missouri (10)
Big Ten: Penn State (5)
Pac-10: Southern Cal (4) or Oregon State
ACC: Who knows? Maybe Florida State (14) and Miami (13)?
Big East: Pitt or Cincinnati (11)
MWC: Utah (6) or Brigham Young
C-USA: Houston (15) or East Carolina
MAC: Ball State/Central Michigan/Western Michigan (12) or Buffalo
WAC: Boise State (7)
SBC: Troy (16)or Louisiana Lafayette
At-Large: Pick 'em between Georgia, Texas/Oklahoma/Texas Tech (8), Big 10 runner-up (9) (Ohio State, Michigan State, or Penn State), Southern Cal (if Oregon wins the Pac-10)

Seeding team, and here's what we might get

1 Oklahoma      
16 Troy 1 Oklahoma    
    1 Texas Tech  
8 Texas Tech 8 Texas Tech    
9 Ohio State      
      4 Southern Cal
4 Southern Cal      
13 Miami 4 Southern Cal    
    4 Southern Cal  
5 Penn State 12 Ball State    
12 Ball State      
       
6 Utah      
11 Cincinnati 6 Utah    
    6 Utah  
3 Alabama 3 Alabama    
14 Florida State      
      2 Florida
7 Boise State      
10 Missouri 10 Missouri    
    2 Florida  
2 Florida 2 Florida    
15 Houston      


 

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 11, 2008

While the championship match-up in one conference was set yesterday, others--and their associated bowls--remain muddled.
Here's a look at each FBS conference and its bowl tie-ins.

Southeastern Conference
Overview With wins yesterday, Alabama and Florida clinched their respective divisions and will meet in Atlanta for the conference championship, where the winner is likely to earn a spot in the National Championship Game; and the loser could still get a BCS bowl.
Possible champs Alabama, Florida
Bowl Tie-Ins (9) Sugar, Capital One, Outback, Cotton, Chick-fil-A, Music City, Liberty, papajohns.com, Independence
Current positions
Current Record
Projected Record
Projected Bowl
Alabama
6-0
10-0
8-0
12-1
Sugar
Florida
6-1
8-1
7-1
12-1
NCG
Georgia
5-2
8-2
6-2
10-2
Capital One
South Carolina
4-3
7-3
4-4
8-4
Cotton
Louisiana State
3-3
6-3
5-3
9-3
Outback
Mississippi
3-3
5-4
4-4
7-5
Liberty
Vanderbilt
3-3
5-4
4-4
7-5
Music City
Kentucky
2-4
6-4
4-4
8-4
Chick-Fil-A
Auburn
2-4
5-5
4-6
5-7
 

Open bowls papajohns.com, Independence
Unassigned None

Big XII Conference
Overview Missouri should clinch the Northern division next week, beating Iowa State while Kansas loses to Texas. The powerful Southern division will be decided by two games. If Texas Tech beats the Oklahoma in Norman, the Red Raiders go to the conference championship. If Oklahoma beat Tech and then Oklahoma State, the Sooners go. If the Sooners lose to the Cowboys, the Red Raiders get the nod (because of their win over Texas).
Bowl Tie-Ins (8) Fiesta, Cotton, Holiday, Alamo, Gator, Insight.com, Independence, Texas
Possible champs Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas
Current positions
Current Record
Projected Record
Projected Bowl
Texas Tech
6-0
10-0
7-1
11-1
Fiesta
Texas
5-1
9-1
7-1
11-1
Cotton
Oklahoma
5-1
9-1
7-1
12-1
NCG
Missouri
4-2
8-2
5-2
10-3
Holiday
Oklahoma State
4-2
8-2
5-3
9-3
Alamo
Nebraska
3-3
6-4
5-3
8-4
Gator
Kansas
3-3
6-4
3-5
6-6
Insight.com
Colorado
2-4
5-5
2-6
5-7
 
Kansas State
1-5
4-6
2-6
5-7
 

Open bowls Independence, Texas
Unassigned None

Big 10 Conference
Overview Despite their loss to Iowa, Penn State should get the title and the Rose Bowl bid, but if the Lions lose to Michigan State (or Illinois) and Ohio State wins out, the Buckeyes go. The Spartans can only go if they beat Penn State and Ohio State loses to Illinois or (shudder) Michigan.
Bowl Tie-Ins (7) Rose, Capital One, Outback, Alamo, Champs Sports, Insight.com, Motor City
Possible champs Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan State
Current positions
Current Record
Projected Record
Projected Bowl
Michigan State
6-1
9-2
6-2
9-3
Capital One
Penn State
5-1
9-1
7-1
11-1
Rose
Ohio State
5-1
8-2
7-1
10-2
BCS
Northwestern
3-3
7-3
5-3
9-3
Outback
Minnesota
3-3
7-3
4-4
8-4
Alamo
Iowa
3-3
6-4
4-4
7-5
Champs Sports
Illinois
3-3
5-5
3-5
5-7
 
Wisconsin
2-5
5-5
3-5
7-5
Insight.com

Open bowls Motor City
Unassigned None

Pacific 10 Conference
Overview Oregon State gets the Rose Bowl bid if they win out; otherwise it'll be Southern Cal.
Bowl Tie-Ins (7) Rose, Holiday, Sun, Hawai'i, Las Vegas, Emerald, Poinsettia
Possible champs Southern Cal, Oregon State, Oregon, Cal, Arizona
Current positions
Current Record
Projected Record
Projected Bowl
Southern Cal
6-1
8-1
8-1
11-1
Rose
Oregon State
5-1
6-3
7-2
8-4
Holiday
Oregon
5-2
7-3
6-3
8-4
Sun
California
4-2
6-3
6-3
8-4
Hawa'i
Arizona
4-2
6-3
6-3
8-4
Las Vegas
Stanford
4-3
5-5
4-5
5-7
 

Open bowls Emerald, Poinsettia
Unassigned None

Atlantic Coast Conference
Overview While the ACC's situation clarified a bit yesterday, there are still dozens of scenarios with eight teams still in the hunt for the conference championship game.
Bowl Tie-Ins (9) Orange, Chick-fili-A, Gator, Champs Sports, Meineke Car Care, Music City, Emerald, Humanitarian, Eaglebank
Possible champs Everyone except Clemson, Duke, and North Carolina State
Current positions
Current Record
Projected Record
Projected Bowl
Florida State
4-2
7-2
6-2
9-4
Chick-fil-A
North Carolina
3-2
7-2
6-2
11-2
Orange
Wake Forest
4-2
6-3
5-3
7-5
Emerald
Virginia Tech
3-2
6-3
5-3
8-4
Champs Sports
Miami
3-2
6-3
4-4
7-5
Music City
Maryland
3-2
6-3
4-4
7-5
Humanitarian
Georgia Tech
4-3
7-3
5-3
8-4
Meineke Car Care
Boston College
2-3
6-3
3-5
7-5
Eaglebank
Virginia
3-3
5-5
4-4
6-6
 
Clemson
2-4
4-5
4-4
6-6
 
Duke
1-4
4-5
1-7
4-8
 

Open bowls None
Unassigned Virginia, Clemson

Big East Conference
Overview Cincinnati's win over WVU put the Bears in the driver's seat, but Pitt and West Virginia can still get the Big East's BCS bid.
Bowl Tie-Ins (7) BCS, Sun, Texas, Meineke Car Care, papajohns.com, International, St. Petersburg
Possible champs Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Rutgers, Connecticut
Current positions
Current Record
Projected Record
Projected Bowl
Pittsburgh
3-1
7-2
5-2
9-3
Sun
Cincinnati
3-1
7-2
6-1
11-2
BCS
West Virginia
3-1
6-3
5-2
8-4
Texas
Rutgers
3-2
4-5
3-4
5-7
 
Connecticut
2-2
6-3
3-4
7-5
papajohns.com
South Florida
1-3
6-3
3-4
8-4
Meineke Car Care
Louisville
1-3
5-4
2-5
6-6
International

Open bowls St. Petersburg
Unassigned None

Mountain West Conference
Overview The a win over BYU, Utah wins the conference. Lose and any of the four contenders could prevail.
Bowl Tie-Ins (4) Las Vegas, Poinsettia, Armed Forces, New Mexico
Possible champs Utah, TCU, BYU, Air Force
Current positions
Current Record
Projected Record
Projected Bowl
Utah
6-0
10-0
8-0
12-0
BCS
Texas Christian
6-1
9-2
7-1
10-2
Las Vegas
Brigham Young
5-1
9-1
6-2
10-2
Poinsettia
Air Force
5-1
8-2
5-3
8-4
Armed Forces
Colorado State
2-4
4-6
4-4
6-6
New Mexico
UNLV
1-5
4-6
3-5
6-6
 

Open bowls NONE
Unassigned UNLV

Conference USA
Overview Tulsa and East Carolina have the inside tracks to the Conference USA Championship game.
Bowl Tie-Ins (5) Liberty, Armed Forces, New Orleans, GMAC, St. Petersburg
Possible champs Tulsa, Rice, East Carolina, Houston, UTEP, Marshall
Current positions
Current Record
Projected Record
Projected Bowl
Tulsa
6-0
8-1
9-0
12-1
Liberty
Rice
5-1
7-3
6-2
8-4
New Orleans
East Carolina
4-1
6-3
6-2
8-5
Armed Forces
Houston
4-1
5-4
6-2
7-5
 
Texas El Paso
3-2
4-5
5-3
6-6
GMAC
Marshall
3-2
4-5
4-4
5-7
 
Memphis
3-3
5-5
4-4
6-6
St. Petersburg
Southern Miss
2-4
4-6
3-5
5-7
 

Open bowls NONE
Unassigned Houston

Mid-American Conference
Overview Buffalo-Akron this week and Ball State-Central Michigan next are likely to decide MAC championship slots, but Western Michigan still has a shot.
Bowl Tie-Ins (3) Motor City, International, GMAC, Eaglebank (if not ACC)
Possible champs Ball State, CMU, WMU, Akron, Buffalo, Bowling Green, Temple
Current positions
Current Record
Projected Record
Projected Bowl
Ball State
5-0
9-0
7-1
11-1
International
C. Michigan
5-0
7-2
8-0
11-2
Motor City
W. Michigan
5-1
8-2
6-2
9-3
GMAC
Northern Illinois
4-2
5-4
5-3
6-6
 
Akron
3-2
5-4
5-3
7-6
 
Buffalo
3-2
5-4
5-3
7-5
 
Bowling Green
3-3
5-5
4-4
6-6
 
Temple
2-3
3-6
4-4
5-7
 

Open bowls NONE
Unassigned Northern Illinois, Akron, Buffalo, Bowling Green

Western Athletic Conference
Overview Cincinnati's win over WVU put the Bears in the driver's seat, but Pitt and West Virginia can still get the Big East's BCS bid.
Bowl Tie-Ins (3) Hawai'i, Humanitarian, New Mexico, GMAC (if not MAC)
Possible champs Boise State, Hawai'i, San Jose State, Nevada, Louisiana Tech
Current positions
Current Record
Projected Record
Projected Bowl
Boise State
5-0
9-0
8-0
12-0
Humanitarian
Hawai'l
4-3
5-5
5-3
6-7
 
San Jose State
4-2
6-4
4-3
6-6
 
Nevada
3-2
5-4
5-3
7-5
New Mexico
Louisiana Tech
3-2
5-4
5-3
7-5
 
Fresno State
2-3
5-4
4-4
7-5
Hawai'i

Open bowls NONE
Unassigned Louisiana Tech, San Jose State

Sun Belt Conference
Overview Cincinnati's win over WVU put the Bears in the driver's seat, but Pitt and West Virginia can still get the Big East's BCS bid.
Bowl Tie-Ins (1) New Orleans
Possible champs ULL, Troy, FIU, Arkansas State, FAU, MTSU
Current positions
Current Record
Projected Record
Projected Bowl
Louisiana Lafayette
4-0
5-4
6-1
7-5
 
Troy
4-1
6-3
6-1
8-4
New Orleans
Florida Int'l
3-2
4-5
4-4
5-7
 
Arkansas State
2-2
4-5
3-4
5-7
 
Florida Atlantic
2-2
4-5
3-4
5-7
 
M. Tennessee
2-3
3-6
4-4
5-7
 

Open bowls NONE
Unassigned Lousiana Lafayette

OPEN BOWL BERTHS (5) UNASSIGNED TEAMS (10)
papajohns.com (projected vs. Connecticut)
Independence (two openings)
Texas (projected vs. West Virginia)
St. Petersburg (projected vs. Memphis)
Motor City (projected vs. Central Michigan)
Virginia
Clemson
UNLV
Houston
Northern Illinois
Akron
Buffalo
Bowling Green
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Lafayette

Bowl Opponents  
BCS National Championship Florida Oklahoma
Sugar Alabama Ohio State
Orange North Carolina Cincinnati
Rose Southern Cal Penn State
Fiesta Texas Tech Utah
 
Eaglebank Navy Boston College
New Mexico Nevada Colorado State

St. Petersburg

Memphis Open Big East - UNLV
Las Vegas Texas Christian Arizona
New Orleans Troy Rice
Poinsettia Brigham Young PAC 10 Open
Hawai'i Fresno State California
Motor City Central Michigan Big 10 Open - Virginia
Meineke Car Care Georgia Tech South Florida
Champs Sports Virginia Tech Iowa
Emerald PAC 10 Open - Akron Wake Forest
Independence Big XII Open - Clemson SEC Open - LA Lafayette
papajohns.com Connecticut SEC Open
Alamo Oklahoma State Minnesota
Humanitaritian Boise State Maryland
Holiday Oregon State Missouri
Texas West Virginia Big XII Open - Houston
Armed Forces Air Force East Carolina
Sun Oregon Pittsburgh
Music City Vanderbilt Miami (FL)
Insight.com Wisconson Kansas
Chick-fil-A Florida State Kentucky
Outback Louisiana State Northwestern
Capital One Georgia Michigan State
Gator Nebraska Notre Dame
Cotton South Carolina Texas
Liberty Tulsa Mississippi
International Ball State Louisville
GMAC Western Michigan Texas El Paso

Assuming no major upsets or unexpected season-ending runs, nine of the ten BCS slots are filled (at least by conference). The Big XII and SEC will get two teams each--Texas Tech, Texas or Oklahoma and Alabama and Florida, respectively. The ACC, Pac-10, Big East, and Big 10 champions add four more. If Utah beats BYU, it gets an automatic "BCS-buster" slot, leaving few candidates for the final berth. No conference can have more than two representatives in the BCS games, or even if the Big XII North champion (probably Missouri) wins the conference championshp game, two Big XII South powers would be left out. Georgia can't go for the same reason.

The tenth-team candidates are probably limited to four teams:
• Southern Cal, if Oregon State wins the Pac-10
• Boise State, if they win out
• The Big Ten runner-up - Ohio State or Michigan State

If Oregon State wins the Pac-10 and therefore the Rose Bowl berth, Southern Cal will certainly be the other team, but if not, the question will be whether the bowls prefer a 10-2 Big Ten team to an undefeated WAC team, even no that provided perhaps the most exciting bowl game in history.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 9, 2008

With the Vols humiliating loss to Wyoming (the seventh place MWC team), Tennessee joins Michigan as marquee programs that will not be bowling this year. Other major disappointments yet to earn bowl eligibility include Clemson, which must win 2 of its last 3 (Duke, Virginia, South Carolina); Arizona State, which must sweep Washington State, UCLA, and Arizona; Notre Dame, which must beat Navy or Syracuse (because they certainly won't beat Southern Cal); Vanderbilt, which started 5-1 and now must beat Kentucky, Tennessee or Wake Forest.

There are currently 50 bowl-eligible teams for the FBS's 68 bowl slots. An additional 22 teams are one win away:

Team Conference Record Remaining opponents
Virginia ACC 5-5 Clemson, Virginia Tech
Illinois Big 10 5-5 Ohio State, Northwestern
Wisconsin Big 10 5-5 Minnesota, Cal Poly
Colorado Big XII 5-5 Oklahoma State, Nebraska
Louisville Big East 5-4 Cincinnati, West Virginia, Rutgers
Notre Dame Independent 5-4 Navy, Syracuse, Southern Cal
Akron MAC 5-4 Buffalo, Ohio, Temple
Buffalo MAC 5-4 Akron, Bowling Green, Kent State
Bowling Green MAC 5-5 Buffalo, Toledo
Northern Illinois MAC 5-4 Central Michigan, Kent State, Navy
Stanford PAC 5-5 Southern Cal, California
Vanderbilt SEC 5-4 Kentucky, Tennessee, Wake Forest
Mississippi SEC 5-4 Louisiana Monroe, LSU, Mississippi State
Auburn SEC 5-5 Georgia, Alabama
Louisiana Lafayette Sun Belt 5-4 Florida Atlantic, Troy, Middle Tennessee
Memphis C-USA 5-5 Central Florida, Tulane
Houston C-USA 5-4 Tulsa, UTEP, Rice
Hawai'i WAC 5-4 Idaho, Washington State, Cincinnati
San Jose State WAC 5-4 Nevada, Fresno State
Nevada WAC 5-4 San Jose State, Boise State, Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech WAC 5-4 Utah State, New Mexico State, Nevada
Fresno State WAC 5-4 New Mexico State, San Jose State, Boise State

With an additional 21 teams still capable of getting the requisite six wins, the NCAA may avoid the embarrassment of having to approve ineligible teams to fill their bowl slots.

Finally, here's an update of the national championship race:

1
Texas Tech (12-10)
10-0
IDLE, @Oklahoma (9-1), Baylor (3-7), Big XII Championship*
11-1
2
Alabama (7-11)
10-0
Mississippi State (3-6), IDLE, Auburn (4-5), SEC Championship*
11-2
3
Texas (13-14)
9-1
@Kansas (6-4), IDLE, Texas A&M (4-6), Big XII Championship*
11-1
5
Florida (17-12)
8-1
South Carolina (7-3), Citadel (3-7), @Florida State (7-2), SEC Championship*
12-1
8
Oklahoma (18-2)
9-1
Texas Tech (10-0), IDLE, @Oklahoma State (8-2), Big XII Championship*
10-2
9
Southern Cal (13-15)
8-1
@Stanford (5-5), IDLE, Notre Dame (5-4), @UCLA (3-6)
11-1
6
Utah (10-10)
10-0
@San Diego State (1-9), Brigham Young (9-1)
12-0
4
Boise State (11-17)
9-0
@Idaho (2-8), @Nevada (5-4), Fresno State (5-4)
12-0
* If qualified
Note: Ball State is also undefeated but has no chance of playing for the national championship; Utah and Boise State are also highly unlikely

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2008

In the category of everyone-loves-a-trainwreck, how about the ACC? After Maryland's loss to Virginia Tech last night, 11 of the 12 ACC teams remain in the hunt for the league championship game and an ill-deserved BCS bowl bid. To show how muddled the situation is, even Georgia Tech, the current Coastal division leader has a rocky path. Beat North Carolina Saturday and Miami in two weeks, and they're in, right? Not so fast...Virginia Tech and Virginia also only have two losses. If the Hokies beat Miami and Duke, and the Cavaliers beat Wake Forest and Clemson, then the winner of the season-ending game between those two decides the division title. Virgina win and they're in because they beat Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech wins, and Georgia Tech's in because the Yellowjackets beat the Hokies. Even Duke, despite having only one conference win at the moment (over Virginia) has a path (albeit a far-fetched one). If they win out against NC State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina; Georgia Tech loses to North Carolina and Miami; Miami loses to Virginia Tech and North Carolina State; Virginia Tech loses to Virginia; Virginia loses to Wake Forest or Clemson; and North Carolina loses to Maryland or North Carolina State, then the Blue Demons go to Atlanta! But I calculate the odds at about 1 out of 60,000 for all that to happen.

In the Atlantic division, at least Maryland and Boston College control their own destinies. If they win their remaining games against North Carloina and FSU (Terps) and FSU and Wake Forest (Eagles), then their season-ending match-up will decided the division. Florida State, Wake Forest, and Clemson can all win the Atlantic, but each needs some help. Only North Carolina State, currently the only team with a winless ACC record, is out of the race.

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2008

Despite Texas' loss to Texas Tech, the Longhorns remain in the national championship picture. If the Red Raiders lose and three or more Big 12 South teams finish with identical records, which could happen if Oklahoma beats Texas Tech, the title is decided based on the following rules:

1. The records of the three teams will be compared against each other
2. The records of the three teams will be compared within their division
3. The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of fi nish (4, 5 and 6)
4. The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents;
5. The highest ranked team in the first Bowl Championship Series Poll following the completion of Big 12 regular season conference play shall be the representative
6. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative
7. The representative will be chosen by draw.

So, here's an update of the national championship race:

1
Alabama (13-13)
9-0
@Louisiana State (6-2), Mississippi State (3-6), IDLE, Auburn (4-5), SEC Championship*
11-2
2
Texas Tech (18-8)
9-0
Oklahoma State (8-1), IDLE, @Oklahoma (8-1), Baylor (3-6), Big XII Championship*
11-1
3
Texas (13-14)
8-1
Baylor (3-6), @Kansas (6-3), IDLE, Texas A&M (4-5), Big XII Championship*
11-1
5
Florida (20-14)
7-1
@Vanderbilt (5-3), South Carolina (6-3), Citadel (3-6), @Florida State (6-2), SEC Championship*
12-1
6
Penn State (16-12)
9-0
IDLE, @Iowa (5-4), Indiana(3-6), Michigan State (8-2)
12-0
9
Oklahoma (21-6)
8-1
@Texas A&M (4-5), Texas Tech (9-0), IDLE, @Oklahoma State (8-1), Big XII Championship*
10-2
10
Oklahoma State (21-6)
8-1
@Texas Tech (9-0), @Colorado (4-5), IDLE, Oklahoma (8-1), Big XII Championship*
10-2
11
Southern Cal (17-14)
7-1
California (6-2), @Stanford (5-4), IDLE, Notre Dame (5-3), @UCLA (3-5)
11-1
8
Utah (18-10)
9-0
Texas Christian (9-1), @San Diego State (1-8), Brigham Young (8-1)
12-0
4
Boise State (13-22)
8-0
Utah State (2-7), @Idaho (2-8), @Nevada (4-4), Fresno State (5-3)
12-0
* If qualified

Games likely to decide the NCG opponents
Next week: Alabama @ LSU, Okahoma State @ Texas Tech, Cal @ USC, TCU @ Utah
11/15: Texas Tech @ Oklahoma
11/22: BYU @ Utah
11/29: Florida @ Florida State, Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State
12/5: SEC Championship, Big 12 Championship

Utah's path remains open, particularly because their opponents for their two remaining big games (TCU and BYU) both won yesterday. It would, however, probably requires the Big 12's Big Four to all lose a second game (possible, but highly unlikely) and Florida to lose again or Penn State to lose. Boise State has no real chance to move up much after three of their four remaining opponents lost yesterday (and the other was idle). Tulsa, never really a factor, lost to Arkansas. Ball State, the only other remaining unbeaten, has no chance.

While the Big XII and the SEC slug it out for title honors, it seems no one wants to win the ACC (either division), the MAC East, and C-USA East. Maryland, Georgia Tech, Akron/Buffalo, and Marshall, respectively, currently sit in first place in those, but probably not for long.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2008

Remaining national championship contenders (current combined opponent record, not including conference championships) and schedule

1
Texas (19-13)
8-0
@Texas Tech (8-0), Baylor (3-5), @Kansas (5-3), IDLE, Texas A&M (3-5), Big XII Championship*
13-0
2
Alabama (16-14)
8-0
Arkansas State (4-3), @Louisiana State (5-2), Mississippi State (3-5), IDLE, Auburn (4-4), SEC Championship*
11-2
5
Penn State (15-10)
9-0
IDLE, @Iowa (5-3), Indiana(3-5), Michigan State (7-2)
12-0
4
Texas Tech ((25-7)
8-0
Texas (8-0), Oklahoma State (7-1), IDLE, @Oklahoma (7-1), Baylor (3-5), Big XII Championship*
10-2
9
Florida (26-13)
6-1
Georgia (7-1), @Vanderbilt (5-3), South Carolina (5-3), Citadel (3-5), @Florida State (6-1), SEC Championship*
12-1
10
Georgia (21-10)
7-1
Florida (6-1), @Kentucky (5-3), @Auburn (4-4), IDLE, Georgia Tech (6-2), SEC Championship*
10-2
11
Oklahoma (23-9)
7-1
Nebraska (5-3), @Texas A&M (3-5), Texas Tech (8-0), IDLE, @Oklahoma State (7-1), Big XII Championship*
10-2
12
Southern Cal (17-20)
6-1
Washington (0-7), California (5-2), @Stanford (4-4), IDLE, Notre Dame (5-2), @UCLA (3-5)
11-1
8
Utah (20-14)
8-0
@New Mexico (4-5), Texas Christian (8-1), @San Diego State (1-7), Brigham Young (7-1)
12-0
3
Boise State (15-22)
7-0
@New Mexico State (3-4), Utah State (1-7), @Idaho (2-7), @Nevada (4-4), Fresno State (5-2)
12-0
* If qualified

If Texas gets by Texas Tech, the Longhorns have a clear path to the Big XII Championship (probably a re-match with Missouri or Kansas). Texas Tech has the toughest path of the BCS-conference unbeatens - their next three opponents have a combined record of 22-2. Alabama has LSU and arch-rival and nemesis Auburn to deal with to even get to the SEC Championship. While Iowa and Michigan State aren't pushovers, Penn State has the easiest route to the National Championship Game; win out and they're probably in (assuming Alabama or Texas stumbles). The two "BCS-Busters" (Utah and Boise State) have a difficult task convincing poll voters to give them enough votes to move to #2, even if all of the BCS-conference teams lose. For Boise State, the task is particularly tough because none of their next four opponents have a winning record. Utah has a good shot at a 12-0 season because their two remaining tough games (Texas Christian and Brigham Young) are at home.

An unlikely (but plausible) route to the ultimate BCS-buster, a Utah spot in the BCS National Championship Game (assumes Utah wins all remaining games):

Nov 3 BCS: Utes jump from 10 to 8 in the BCS rankings after Texas Tech loses to Texas and Florida loses to Georgia
1 Texas, 2 Alabama, 3 Penn State, 4 Oklahoma, 5 Southern Cal, 6 Georgia, 7 Oklahoma State, 8 UTAH

Nov 10 BCS: Utes climb to 6 after Oklahoma State loses to Texas Tech and Alabama loses at LSU
1 Texas, 2 Penn State, 3 Oklahoma, 4 Southern Cal, 5 Georgia, 6 UTAH

Nov 17 BCS: Utes remain #6
1 Texas, 2 Penn State, 3 Oklahoma, 4 Southern Cal, 5 Georgia, 6 UTAH

Nov 24 BCS: Utes climb to 5 when Michigan State upsets Penn State
1 Texas, 2 Oklahoma, 3 Southern Cal, 4 Georgia, 5 UTAH

Dec 1 BCS: Utes jump to 3 when Notre Dame shocks Southern Cal and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma
1 Texas, 2 Georgia, 3 UTAH

Dec 8 BCS: Utah climbs to 2 and gets a berth in the NCG against Texas when Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC Championship
1 Texas 2 UTAH

This weeks BCS bowl projections/predictions

NCG: Texas vs. Penn State
Rose: Ohio State vs. Southern Cal
Orange: Florida State vs. Utah
Fiesta: Oklahoma State vs. Alabama
Sugar: Florida vs. West Virginia

Bottom-rated teams:
FBS: North Texas (0-8)
FCS: Campbell (1-7)
D2: Cheney (0-9)
D3: Principia (0-8)
NAIA: Haskell (0-7)
JUCO: Pima (0-8)
COA: San Bernardino Valley (0-7)

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2008

In a little sidetrip from this year's season, we look at several potential schools moving into FBS football in the next few years. Western Kentucky in the final stages of the transition, playing a full FBS schedule this season, currently 2-6 and ranked 105th among the 120 FBS schools in my system. On the horizon are three possible moves from FCS to FBS: Texas State (San Marcos), Jacksonville State, and Georgia Southern, but the most audacious moves come from two schools currently not playing football. South Alabama (Mobile) plans to start playing at the FCS level next year, play a full schedule in 2010 and begin the three-year transition to FBS in 2011. In addition, the University of Texas San Antonio is studying a similar FCS to FBS start-up, perhaps in 2010. Speculation is that South Alabama would join the Sun Belt Conference, while UT-San Antonio would be in Conference USA.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 19, 2008

After the Big XII dominated the college football news, next week's spotlight moves to the Big 10 for the Penn State Nittany Lions travel to Columbus to take on the Ohio State. The Buckeye offense finally woke up against Michigan State, and it will have to be in top form to challenge the Nittany Lions. Other big games include Georgia at LSU and, back in the Big XII, Texas vs. surprising Oklahoma State and Kansas vs. Texas Tech. Watch for the Jayhawks to knock the Red Raiders from the unbeaten ranks. A trio of big games highlight the topsy-turvy ACC schedule with Georgia Tech hosting resurgent Virginia; Boston College traveling to North Carolina, and Virginia Tech playing Florida State. While none of these have any bearing on the national championship, they might clarify the ACC.

This weeks BCS bowl projections

NCG: Texas vs. Penn State
Rose: Ohio State vs. Southern Cal
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Utah
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Sugar: Florida vs. Pittsburgh

The big game of next weekend might be in the FCS, where CAA South leaders James Madison and Villanova meet in Philadelphia. In D2 Abilene Christian and Tarleton State meet in a huge Lone Star Conference match-up. In D3, Wisconsin-Whitewater (1) and Mount Union (2) appear to be heading for another national championship match-up.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 13, 2008

In case there's any doubt what conferences rule the Football Championship Subdivision (FBS) of Division 1 college football, consider the following:

 
Big XII
SEC
Big 10
PAC 10
ACC
BE
MWC
WAC
MAC
CUSA
Sun
Top 10
3
2
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
Top 25
6
3
3
2
3
1
3
1
1
1
0
Highest
2
1
6
11
13
22
8
5
7
9
54
Non-conf W/L
.792
.848
.756
.464
.762
.647
.676
.500
.404
.372
.276
Average Rating
109.33
107.96
105.00
96.95
108.41
103.00
100.67
95.47
92.20
92.28
86.48

From the data, the Big XII is clearly the top conference so far this year, with the SEC close behind followed by the ACC, the Big 10, the Big East,
the Mountain West, the PAC Ten, WAC, MAC, Conference USA, and Sun Belt.

BCS Bowl Projections (STILL very early)

NCG: Texas vs. Alabama
Rose: Penn State vs. Southern Cal
Orange: Virginia Tech vs. Utah
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Georgia
Sugar: Florida vs. Pittsburgh

Although some are long-shots, there are probably ten remaining contenders for the two spots in the BCS National Championship Game. Here are
Their remaining schedules and the current record of their opponents:

ALABAMA (19-17)
Mississippi (3-3)
Tennessee (2-4)
Arkansas State (4-2)
Louisiana State (4-1)
Mississippi State (2-4)
Auburn (4-3)
SEC Championship*
TEXAS (27-9)
Missouri (5-1)
Oklahoma State (6-0)
Texas Tech (6-0)
Baylor (3-3)
Kansas (5-1)
Texas A&M (2-4)
Big 12 Championship*
OKLA. STATE (25-11)
Baylor (3-3)
Texas (6-0)
Iowa State (2-4)
Texas Tech (6-0)
Colorado (3-3)
Oklahoma (5-1)
Big 12 Championship *
TEXAS TECH (27-9)
Texas A&M (2-4)
Kansas (5-1)
Texas (6-0)
Oklahoma State (6-0)
Oklahoma (5-1)
Baylor (3-3)
Big 12 Championship*
PENN STATE (20-13)
Michigan (2-4)
Ohio State (6-1)
Iowa (4-3)
Indiana (2-4)
Michigan State (6-1)
FLORIDA (26-10)
Kentucky (4-2)
Georgia (5-1)
Vanderbilt (5-1)
South Carolina (5-2)
The Citadel (3-3), FCS
Florida State (4-1)
SOUTHERN CAL (19-23)
Washington State (1-6)
Arizona (4-2)
Washington (0-5)
California (4-1)
Stanford (4-3)
Notre Dame (4-2)
UCLA (2-4)
OKLAHOMA (26-10)
Kansas (5-1)
Kansas State (4-2)
Nebraska (3-3)
Texas A&M (2-4)
Texas Tech (6-0)
Oklahoma State (6-0)
Big 12 Championship*
GEORGIA (27-9)
Vanderbilt (5-1)
Louisiana State (4-1)
Florida (5-1)
Kentucky (4-2)
Auburn (4-3)
Georgia Tech (5-1)
SEC Championship*
MISSOURI (23-13)
Texas (6-0)
Colorado (3-3)
Baylor (3-3)
Kansas State (4-2)
Iowa State (2-4)
Kansas (5-1)
Big 12 Championship*
* If qualified

 

MONDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2008

Now that the Big XII season starts in earnest, things will probably change, but for now, the conference sports an amazing five of the top seven teams: Missouri (2), Texas (3), Oklahoma (4) , Texas Tech (5), and Oklahoma State (7). Texas and Oklahoma face each other Saturday, as do Missouri and Oklahoma State, while Texas Tech gets a Nebraska team smarting from the Missouri humiliation. At least two of these will drop a bit, although losing to an unbeaten team doesn't cost many points.

In the meantime, the not-so-Big East and the PAC Ten have replaced the ACC as weakest FBS conferences. Only Cal (16) and South Florida (21) sits in the top 25 (USC is #26), while there are now three ACC teams there: Virginia Tech (14), Georgia Tech (17), and North Carolina (20).

Remember, my ratings are strictly based on current season on-field performance. If you're wondering how USC can only rate 26th, here's a breakdown of their season to date:

Result
Value
Beat Virginia, 52-7
1.377
Beat Ohio State, 35-3
1.858
Lost to Oregon State, 21-27
-1.397
Beat Oregon, 44-10
1.314
Rating
7.88
Normalized
115.42

Remaining unbeaten teams  
Alabama
6-0
Mississippi, @ Tennessee, Arkansas State, @LSU, Mississippi state, Auburn
Missouri
5-0
Oklahoma State, @Texas, Colorado, @Baylor, Kansas State, @Iowa State, Kansas
Texas
5-0
Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, @Texas Tech, Baylor, @Kansas, Texas A&M
Oklahoma
5-0
@Texas, Kansas, @Kansas State, Nebraska, @Texas A&M, Texas Tech, @Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
5-0
Nebraska, @Texas A&M, @Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State, @Oklahoma, Baylor
Vanderbilt
5-0
@Mississippi State, @Georgia, Duke, Florida, @Kentucky, Tennessee, @Wake Forest
Oklahoma State
5-0
@Missouri, Baylor, @Texas, Iowa State, @Texas Tech, @Colorado, Oklahoma
Ball State
6-0
@Western Kentucky, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, @Miami (OH), @Central Michigan, Western Michigan
Tulsa
5-0
@SMU, Texas El Paso, Central Florida, @Arkansas, @Houston, Tulane, @Marshall
Penn State
6-0
@Wisconsin, Michigan, @Ohio State, @Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State
Utah
6-0
@Wyoming, Colorado State, @New Mexico, TCU, @San Diego State, Brigham Young
Boise State
4-0
@Southern Miss, Hawaii, @San Jose State, @New Mexico State, Utah State, @Idaho, @Nevada, Fresno State
Northwestern
5-0
Michigan State, Purdue, @Indiana, @Minnesota, Ohio State, @Michigan, Illinois
Louisiana State
4-0
@Florida, @South Carolina, Georgia, Tulane, Alabama, Troy, Mississippi, @Arkansas
Brigham Young
5-0
New Mexico, @TCU, UNLV, @Colorado State, San Diego State, @Air Force, @Utah

Looking at the Big XII, Texas faces four consecutive currently-unbeaten team (Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech) over the next four weeks! Missouri may have the "easiest" path because they play only two (Oklahoma State and Texas) of the unbeaten five. Oklahoma State has the toughest road, playing all four other unbeatens, three (Missouri, Texas and Texas Tech) on the road.

This week's BCS projections (still very early):

Rose Bowl January 1 Big 10-PAC 10 Penn State Southern Cal
Orange Bowl January 1 ACC-Pick C Virginia Tech Brigham Young
Sugar Bowl January 2 SEC-Pick B LSU Pitt
Fiesta Bowl January 5 Big XII-Pick A Missouri Ohio State
BCS Championship January 8 BCS 1-BCS 2 Oklahoma Alabama

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 25, 2008

Well...so much for those very early BCS projections! Tonight's shocking 27-21 upset of Southern Cal by Oregon State is one more reason to love college football.
Biggest winner (other than the Beavers themselves): Penn State, which slaughtered OSU, 45-14 three weeks ago.
Biggest loser (other than the Trojans themselves): Ohio State, which lost to USC last week because I still think the Buckeyes and Trojans will win their respective conference titles, possibly settin up a rematch in the Rose Bowl.

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 23, 2008

A VERY early look at the BCS bowls:

Rose Bowl January 1 Big 10-PAC 10 Ohio State LSU1
Orange Bowl January 1 ACC-Pick C Clemson Brigham Young
Sugar Bowl January 2 SEC-Pick B Georgia South Florida
Fiesta Bowl January 5 Big XII-Pick A Missouri Penn State
BCS Championship January 8 BCS 1-BCS 2 Southern California Oklahoma

1Buckeye fans wouldn't be happy about that...another January match-up with the SEC, but right now it doesn't look like any other PAC 10 team will be worthy of a BCS game.

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 2008

I decided to go ahead and publish the ratings this week even though there's still a lot of instablity in the numbers with so few games. Even so, Southern Cal shows up as #1 in my numbers, but with the PAC 10's well-documented flop for far this year, they may not stay there as they enter the conference schedule. Of course, with no apparent challenger in the league, the Trojans are likely to finish the season undefeated, gaining a certain BCS Championship berth (probably against Missouri or Oklahoma unless an SEC team can finish with only one loss). Looking ahead at USC's schedule:

Oregon State (1-2 with a loss to Stanford)
Oregon (3-1, lost to Boise State yesterday)
Arizona State (2-2, lost to UNLV)
Washington State (1-3, only win over FCS Portland State)
Arizona (3-1, wins over Idaho, Toledo, UCLA; lost to New Mexico-which lost to Tulsa yesterday, 56-14)
Washington (0-3, outscored 44-127)
California (2-1, started strong but then whipped by Maryland)
Stanford (2-2, lost 31-14 to TCU)
Notre Dame (2-1, may improve as season progress, but absolutely NO offense yesterday vs. Michigan State)
UCLA (BYU 59, UCLA 0...enough said)

My conference ratings (an average of the member team ratings) also show how the PAC 10 stands:

Southeastern 109.84
Big Ten 108.48
Big XII 109.47
Atlantic Coast 107.62
Mountain West 101.51
Big East 98.24
PAC Ten 98.46
Western Athletic 95.42
Mid-American 91.41
Conference-USA 92.11
Independents 85.07
Sun Belt 87.13

The obvious big winner so far this year is the Mountain West. Its three unbeaten teams (BYU, Utah, and TCU...but they meet Oklahoma next week) look like a good bet to produce a so-called "BCS-buster." Throw in UNLV and Air Force (both 3-1 with only loss to Utah), and the conference definitely deserves its #5 spot.

And for all the talk about the ACC's weakness, it doesn't show up in the numbers. The conference is a close fourth to the big three--SEC, Big Ten, Big XII.

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 7, 2008

Not much excitement yet in college football. Only two FCS (formerly 1-AA) teams beat FBS teams: Cal Poly over San Diego State (who then almost beat Notre Dame) and New Hampshire over Army. Things start to change this week, however, with the marquee Southern Cal-Ohio State match-up, although even that may have lost a little luster with the Buckeyes narrow win over Ohio University.

Because my ratings are solely based on current year on-field performance, they don't have much meaning until more games have been played, but Southern Cal has already risen to the top (followed by Troy, Florida, Kentucky, and East Carolina). Ohio State is at 47 thanks to wins over Youngstown (which then lost to South Dakota State, 40-7) and the Bobcats. Next week's other big game - in terms of rankings - is Kansas (22) vs. South Florida (11). In the meantime, the once-mighty Florida State Seminoles play their second FCS opponent. This team Chattanooga will have a score piled up against them. As I understand it, FSU will only be able to count one of these wins toward the six required for bowl eligibility.

FRIDAY, AUGUST 22, 2008

The 2008 college football season is just around the corner, with the defending D2 national champion Valdosta State Blazers hosting Fort Valley State tomorrow. Major college football opens Thursday, August 28. The near season brings some changes at all levels of college football.

Division 1A (Football Bowl Series) teams will be competing for two additional bowl games, the Congressional Bowl in Washington, DC and the St. Petersburg Bowl in Florida, bringing the total number of bowls in 34. The addition of these games makes it certain that a number of .500 teams will again be rewarded with post-season play. There's ever the possibility there won't be enough qualifying teams, particularly if we see some more 1AA (Football Championship Series) upsets early in the season. With the addition of Western Kentucky to the 1A status, there are 120 teams for 68 bowl spots. We can expect some compelling stinkers in the bowl season.

Nine new teams will begin or resume intercollegiate competition this season:

The NCAA's decision to allow 1A (FBS) teams to count one game against 1AA (FCS) teams has created an avalache of silly early-season mismatches. such as Arizona State-Northern Arizona, Arkansas-Western Illinois, Boston College-Rhode Island, Cincinnati-Eastern Kentucky, Colorado-Eastern Washington, Florida State-Western Carolina, Georgia (pre-season #1 in many lists)-Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech-Jacksonville State, Illinois-Eastern Illinois, Kentucky-Norfolk State, Louisville-Tennessee Tech, Miami-Charleston Southern, Mississippi-Samford, Missouri-Southeast Missouri, North Carolina-McNeese State, Ohio State-Youngstown, Oklahoma-Chattanooga, Purdue-Northern Colorado, Rutgers-Morgan State, South Carolina-Wofford, South Florida-Te