COMMENTARY
| TUESDAY, DECEMBER 9, 2008 |
Some bowl notes: 1. Which five bowls match up teams with at least 22 combined wins? 2. Which five bowls match up teams with the fewest combined wins (13)? 3. Which two bowls feature opponents that each have at least a current
four game winning streak? 4. Of the 68 bowl teams, how many have fewer than eight wins? Major college football's bowl system may be part of what Philadelphia talk show host Michael Smirkonish calls the "sissification" of America. An element of that suggests that competition is unhealthy because someone has to lose. In the NCAA basketball tournament, 64 team end their season with a loss. With the bowls, 34 teams will finish with a feel-good win. 5. Which bowl game is the biggest stinker? |
| SUNDAY, DECEMBER 7, 2008 |
What do the highest and lowest levels of college football have in common? Neither Division 1 FBS nor Junior Colleges really settle their championship on the playing field. Florida (deserving) and Oklahoma (undeserving) will play for the BCS Championship in Miami, and Butler County Community College beat Snow College yesterday, 37-30 in double overtime, to win the Junior College championship. JUCO can certainly be forgiven since their schools lack sufficient funds to conduct a full playoff, but the major schools are rolling in money. The BCS system, while better than no system at all, robs the fans of a true championship. In the meantime, the FBS is getting what it deserves this year - a plethora of mediocre teams playing in the 34 bowls. The ACC is one of the big beneficiaries of the bowl glut--10 of its 12 schools will be in a bowl this year (only Duke and Virginia are staying home), proving that parity (or mediocrity) pays. The other five BCS conferences failed to provide enough teams to fill their bowl affiliations, and seven bowls must now go hunting among 7-5 or 6-6 non-BCS conferences for participants. Who outside of Louisiana, for example, will care about a possible Louisiana Tech-Louisiana Lafayette match-up in the Independence Bowl, which lost both of its BCS affiliates? The December 23 Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego may be the only winner in the bowl shake-up caused by two few BCS teams to go around. It looks like the Poinsettia may bag an interesting Boise State (12-0) vs. Texas Christian (10-2) match-up, but in addition to the Independence, the Motor City, St. Petersburg, Hawaii, Papajohns.com, and Texas (probably 6-6 Notre Dame) are going begging. Seventy-two of the 120 FBS teams are bowl-eligible, thirteen of them at 6-6. At least nine of these will be playing in a bowl. Here are the thirteen decidely mediocre teams that "earned" a post-season award:
Most deserving to stay home: Notre Dame (but they won't), San Jose State, Kentucky (neither will they), and Arkansas State. Most likely to stay home: Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, Arkansas State, and Florida Atlantic. Why not a 16-team FBS playoff? Tradition, FBS officials say, but it's really money. President-elect Barack Obama's proposal involves shortening the regular season and playing a eight-team playoff, but that doesn't really solve much. There are 11 FBS champions--why not include them all? The Big 10 managed to play a full 12-game schedule before Thanksgiving, and the conference will conclude its 2009 schedule on November 21. If the other conferences dropped their off weeks, those with championship games (SEC, Big XII, ACC, C-USA, MAC could play those on Thanksgiving weekend, and a 16-team playoff could begin December 5. Somehow the other divisions manage a playoff. FCS includes 16 teams and will grow to 20 in 2010; D2 includes 24 teams; D3, 32 teams; and the NAIA, 16. A 16-team FBS playoff requires 31 games, so only three current bowls would be left out. They could still conduct scintilating match-ups like Louisiana Tech-Louisiana Lafayette. A 16-team playoff would involve the 11 conference champions and five at-large teams. This year, the champs would be Virginia Tech (ACC), Penn State (Big 10), Oklahoma (Big XII), Cincinnati (Big East), East Carolina (C-USA), Buffalo (MAC), Utah (MWC), Southern Cal (Pac-10), Florida (SEC), Troy (SBC), and Boise State (WAC). At large candidates would include Texas, Texas Tech, Alabama, Ohio State, Texas Christian, Georgia Tech, Georgia, Pittsburgh, and Tulsa, I'd take the first five and seed them for these first-round games: December 5 The second round might look like this By the way, if you want more bowls, I'd allow first and second round losers (12 teams) to play in bowls. Play as many bowls as you want between December 19 and January 1 Semifinals, January 2 (Yea, they're both re-matches. Shuffle 'em,
if you like.) TRUE National Championship, January 8 The current REAL championships are nearing conclusion. Minnesota-Duluth meets Northwest Missouri in D2 next week, while Carroll College (MT) faces Sioux Falls in two weeks for the NAIA title. D1 FCS (James Madison-Montana and Richmond-Northern Iowa) and D3 (Mount Union-Wheaton and Wisconsin Whitewater-Mary Hardin Baylor) have their semi-finals next week. Carroll and Mount Union are defending champs, but the other divisions will have new kings.
|
| MONDAY, DECEMBER 1, 2008 |
NCAA foortball: Where every game counts. What a joke! Only a Missouri upset of Oklahoma can correct the wrong done by the BCS computers. Oregon's big win over Oregon State creates an opening in the Motor City Bowl opposite Ball State. If bowl officials have any brains (and league commitments allow), they could set up a Ball State-Boise State match-up for a mythical FBS non-BCS championship game. That would be a don't-miss game! Come to think of it, here's a radical proposal for the BCS: Create a sixth BCS game matching the two top-rated non-BCS conference (MWC, WAC, MAC, SBC, C-USA) teams that don't otherwise get a BCS invite. This year, that would be Ball State and Boise State. No need to create a new bowl (34 is enough!), just rotate it among some of the existing bowls. Maybe the Cotton, Sun, and Gator.
|
| SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2008 |
So maybe you thought Oklahoma put on the biggest offensive show today? Check out the D2 playoff game between Abilene Christian and West Texas A&M. The 93-68 ACU win set a new standard the total points in a game, bettering the 40 year old regulation game record and the record for any game (overtime) set just a year ago when Chadron State beat ACU, 76-73 in overtime. The two teams also smashed the single-game total offense record, combining for 1,531 yards (the old record was a meager 1,369 yards). In bowl chase news, Stanford, Illinois, and UNLV lost to be eliminated from the bowl-eligibility chase. There are now 64 teams eligible for the 68 slots, with 15 more on the edge, including Hawaii, which leads Idaho 28-10 at halftime as I write this. A win probably gets the Hawaii Bowl bid for the Rainbow Warriors. Here's a summary of the conference races, including teams that could still find their way into a bowl.
|
| TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 11, 2008 |
Bowl-eligible vs. bowl-worthy: There are now 60 "bowl-eligible"
Bowl Subdivision teams (and 19 more one win away) for the NCAA's gluttonous
total of 34 bowls, so it appears there will be no need to make any exceptions,
but who is really bowl-worthy? Using that criteria, here's my list of bowl-worthy teams: That's only 40-41 teams, and we wouldn't be watching games against a couple of 6-6 teams. As it stands, there will probably be a dozen or so 6-6 teams in bowls - and some of those from the lower echelon conferences. With that in mind, if the NCAA were listening, I'd love to see a re-vamping playoff/bowl system that really rewards performance (and potentially, punishes futility). Leave the two non-BCS championship games (C-USA and MAC) in place and take the five eventual non-BCS champions along with the nine BCS conference/division champs (two each from the SEC, ACC, and Big XII; one each from the Big 10, Pac-10, Big East), add two at-large selections and hold a 16-team real BCS playoff. That's 15 games. This year's teams might be: Seeding team, and here's what we might get
|
| TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 11, 2008 |
While the championship match-up in one conference was set yesterday, others--and
their associated bowls--remain muddled.
Here's a look at each FBS conference and its bowl tie-ins.
| Southeastern Conference | |||||
| Overview | With wins yesterday, Alabama and Florida clinched their respective divisions and will meet in Atlanta for the conference championship, where the winner is likely to earn a spot in the National Championship Game; and the loser could still get a BCS bowl. | ||||
| Possible champs | Alabama, Florida | ||||
| Bowl Tie-Ins (9) | Sugar, Capital One, Outback, Cotton, Chick-fil-A, Music City, Liberty, papajohns.com, Independence | ||||
| Current positions | Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Bowl | ||
| Alabama | 6-0 |
10-0 |
8-0 |
12-1 |
Sugar |
| Florida | 6-1 |
8-1 |
7-1 |
12-1 |
NCG |
| Georgia | 5-2 |
8-2 |
6-2 |
10-2 |
Capital One |
| South Carolina | 4-3 |
7-3 |
4-4 |
8-4 |
Cotton |
| Louisiana State | 3-3 |
6-3 |
5-3 |
9-3 |
Outback |
| Mississippi | 3-3 |
5-4 |
4-4 |
7-5 |
Liberty |
| Vanderbilt | 3-3 |
5-4 |
4-4 |
7-5 |
Music City |
| Kentucky | 2-4 |
6-4 |
4-4 |
8-4 |
Chick-Fil-A |
| Auburn | 2-4 |
5-5 |
4-6 |
5-7 |
|
| Open bowls | papajohns.com, Independence | ||||
| Unassigned | None | ||||
| Big XII Conference | |||||
| Overview | Missouri should clinch the Northern division next week, beating Iowa State while Kansas loses to Texas. The powerful Southern division will be decided by two games. If Texas Tech beats the Oklahoma in Norman, the Red Raiders go to the conference championship. If Oklahoma beat Tech and then Oklahoma State, the Sooners go. If the Sooners lose to the Cowboys, the Red Raiders get the nod (because of their win over Texas). | ||||
| Bowl Tie-Ins (8) | Fiesta, Cotton, Holiday, Alamo, Gator, Insight.com, Independence, Texas | ||||
| Possible champs | Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas | ||||
| Current positions | Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Bowl | ||
| Texas Tech | 6-0 |
10-0 |
7-1 |
11-1 |
Fiesta |
| Texas | 5-1 |
9-1 |
7-1 |
11-1 |
Cotton |
| Oklahoma | 5-1 |
9-1 |
7-1 |
12-1 |
NCG |
| Missouri | 4-2 |
8-2 |
5-2 |
10-3 |
Holiday |
| Oklahoma State | 4-2 |
8-2 |
5-3 |
9-3 |
Alamo |
| Nebraska | 3-3 |
6-4 |
5-3 |
8-4 |
Gator |
| Kansas | 3-3 |
6-4 |
3-5 |
6-6 |
Insight.com |
| Colorado | 2-4 |
5-5 |
2-6 |
5-7 |
|
| Kansas State | 1-5 |
4-6 |
2-6 |
5-7 |
|
| Open bowls | Independence, Texas | ||||
| Unassigned | None | ||||
| Big 10 Conference | |||||
| Overview | Despite their loss to Iowa, Penn State should get the title and the Rose Bowl bid, but if the Lions lose to Michigan State (or Illinois) and Ohio State wins out, the Buckeyes go. The Spartans can only go if they beat Penn State and Ohio State loses to Illinois or (shudder) Michigan. | ||||
| Bowl Tie-Ins (7) | Rose, Capital One, Outback, Alamo, Champs Sports, Insight.com, Motor City | ||||
| Possible champs | Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan State | ||||
| Current positions | Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Bowl | ||
| Michigan State | 6-1 |
9-2 |
6-2 |
9-3 |
Capital One |
| Penn State | 5-1 |
9-1 |
7-1 |
11-1 |
Rose |
| Ohio State | 5-1 |
8-2 |
7-1 |
10-2 |
BCS |
| Northwestern | 3-3 |
7-3 |
5-3 |
9-3 |
Outback |
| Minnesota | 3-3 |
7-3 |
4-4 |
8-4 |
Alamo |
| Iowa | 3-3 |
6-4 |
4-4 |
7-5 |
Champs Sports |
| Illinois | 3-3 |
5-5 |
3-5 |
5-7 |
|
| Wisconsin | 2-5 |
5-5 |
3-5 |
7-5 |
Insight.com |
| Open bowls | Motor City | ||||
| Unassigned | None | ||||
| Pacific 10 Conference | |||||
| Overview | Oregon State gets the Rose Bowl bid if they win out; otherwise it'll be Southern Cal. | ||||
| Bowl Tie-Ins (7) | Rose, Holiday, Sun, Hawai'i, Las Vegas, Emerald, Poinsettia | ||||
| Possible champs | Southern Cal, Oregon State, Oregon, Cal, Arizona | ||||
| Current positions | Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Bowl | ||
| Southern Cal | 6-1 |
8-1 |
8-1 |
11-1 |
Rose |
| Oregon State | 5-1 |
6-3 |
7-2 |
8-4 |
Holiday |
| Oregon | 5-2 |
7-3 |
6-3 |
8-4 |
Sun |
| California | 4-2 |
6-3 |
6-3 |
8-4 |
Hawa'i |
| Arizona | 4-2 |
6-3 |
6-3 |
8-4 |
Las Vegas |
| Stanford | 4-3 |
5-5 |
4-5 |
5-7 |
|
| Open bowls | Emerald, Poinsettia | ||||
| Unassigned | None | ||||
| Atlantic Coast Conference | |||||
| Overview | While the ACC's situation clarified a bit yesterday, there are still dozens of scenarios with eight teams still in the hunt for the conference championship game. | ||||
| Bowl Tie-Ins (9) | Orange, Chick-fili-A, Gator, Champs Sports, Meineke Car Care, Music City, Emerald, Humanitarian, Eaglebank | ||||
| Possible champs | Everyone except Clemson, Duke, and North Carolina State | ||||
| Current positions | Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Bowl | ||
| Florida State | 4-2 |
7-2 |
6-2 |
9-4 |
Chick-fil-A |
| North Carolina | 3-2 |
7-2 |
6-2 |
11-2 |
Orange |
| Wake Forest | 4-2 |
6-3 |
5-3 |
7-5 |
Emerald |
| Virginia Tech | 3-2 |
6-3 |
5-3 |
8-4 |
Champs Sports |
| Miami | 3-2 |
6-3 |
4-4 |
7-5 |
Music City |
| Maryland | 3-2 |
6-3 |
4-4 |
7-5 |
Humanitarian |
| Georgia Tech | 4-3 |
7-3 |
5-3 |
8-4 |
Meineke Car Care |
| Boston College | 2-3 |
6-3 |
3-5 |
7-5 |
Eaglebank |
| Virginia | 3-3 |
5-5 |
4-4 |
6-6 |
|
| Clemson | 2-4 |
4-5 |
4-4 |
6-6 |
|
| Duke | 1-4 |
4-5 |
1-7 |
4-8 |
|
| Open bowls | None | ||||
| Unassigned | Virginia, Clemson | ||||
| Big East Conference | |||||
| Overview | Cincinnati's win over WVU put the Bears in the driver's seat, but Pitt and West Virginia can still get the Big East's BCS bid. | ||||
| Bowl Tie-Ins (7) | BCS, Sun, Texas, Meineke Car Care, papajohns.com, International, St. Petersburg | ||||
| Possible champs | Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Rutgers, Connecticut | ||||
| Current positions | Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Bowl | ||
| Pittsburgh | 3-1 |
7-2 |
5-2 |
9-3 |
Sun |
| Cincinnati | 3-1 |
7-2 |
6-1 |
11-2 |
BCS |
| West Virginia | 3-1 |
6-3 |
5-2 |
8-4 |
Texas |
| Rutgers | 3-2 |
4-5 |
3-4 |
5-7 |
|
| Connecticut | 2-2 |
6-3 |
3-4 |
7-5 |
papajohns.com |
| South Florida | 1-3 |
6-3 |
3-4 |
8-4 |
Meineke Car Care |
| Louisville | 1-3 |
5-4 |
2-5 |
6-6 |
International |
| Open bowls | St. Petersburg | ||||
| Unassigned | None | ||||
| Mountain West Conference | |||||
| Overview | The a win over BYU, Utah wins the conference. Lose and any of the four contenders could prevail. | ||||
| Bowl Tie-Ins (4) | Las Vegas, Poinsettia, Armed Forces, New Mexico | ||||
| Possible champs | Utah, TCU, BYU, Air Force | ||||
| Current positions | Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Bowl | ||
| Utah | 6-0 |
10-0 |
8-0 |
12-0 |
BCS |
| Texas Christian | 6-1 |
9-2 |
7-1 |
10-2 |
Las Vegas |
| Brigham Young | 5-1 |
9-1 |
6-2 |
10-2 |
Poinsettia |
| Air Force | 5-1 |
8-2 |
5-3 |
8-4 |
Armed Forces |
| Colorado State | 2-4 |
4-6 |
4-4 |
6-6 |
New Mexico |
| UNLV | 1-5 |
4-6 |
3-5 |
6-6 |
|
| Open bowls | NONE | ||||
| Unassigned | UNLV | ||||
| Conference USA | |||||
| Overview | Tulsa and East Carolina have the inside tracks to the Conference USA Championship game. | ||||
| Bowl Tie-Ins (5) | Liberty, Armed Forces, New Orleans, GMAC, St. Petersburg | ||||
| Possible champs | Tulsa, Rice, East Carolina, Houston, UTEP, Marshall | ||||
| Current positions | Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Bowl | ||
| Tulsa | 6-0 |
8-1 |
9-0 |
12-1 |
Liberty |
| Rice | 5-1 |
7-3 |
6-2 |
8-4 |
New Orleans |
| East Carolina | 4-1 |
6-3 |
6-2 |
8-5 |
Armed Forces |
| Houston | 4-1 |
5-4 |
6-2 |
7-5 |
|
| Texas El Paso | 3-2 |
4-5 |
5-3 |
6-6 |
GMAC |
| Marshall | 3-2 |
4-5 |
4-4 |
5-7 |
|
| Memphis | 3-3 |
5-5 |
4-4 |
6-6 |
St. Petersburg |
| Southern Miss | 2-4 |
4-6 |
3-5 |
5-7 |
|
| Open bowls | NONE | ||||
| Unassigned | Houston | ||||
| Mid-American Conference | |||||
| Overview | Buffalo-Akron this week and Ball State-Central Michigan next are likely to decide MAC championship slots, but Western Michigan still has a shot. | ||||
| Bowl Tie-Ins (3) | Motor City, International, GMAC, Eaglebank (if not ACC) | ||||
| Possible champs | Ball State, CMU, WMU, Akron, Buffalo, Bowling Green, Temple | ||||
| Current positions | Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Bowl | ||
| Ball State | 5-0 |
9-0 |
7-1 |
11-1 |
International |
| C. Michigan | 5-0 |
7-2 |
8-0 |
11-2 |
Motor City |
| W. Michigan | 5-1 |
8-2 |
6-2 |
9-3 |
GMAC |
| Northern Illinois | 4-2 |
5-4 |
5-3 |
6-6 |
|
| Akron | 3-2 |
5-4 |
5-3 |
7-6 |
|
| Buffalo | 3-2 |
5-4 |
5-3 |
7-5 |
|
| Bowling Green | 3-3 |
5-5 |
4-4 |
6-6 |
|
| Temple | 2-3 |
3-6 |
4-4 |
5-7 |
|
| Open bowls | NONE | ||||
| Unassigned | Northern Illinois, Akron, Buffalo, Bowling Green | ||||
| Western Athletic Conference | |||||
| Overview | Cincinnati's win over WVU put the Bears in the driver's seat, but Pitt and West Virginia can still get the Big East's BCS bid. | ||||
| Bowl Tie-Ins (3) | Hawai'i, Humanitarian, New Mexico, GMAC (if not MAC) | ||||
| Possible champs | Boise State, Hawai'i, San Jose State, Nevada, Louisiana Tech | ||||
| Current positions | Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Bowl | ||
| Boise State | 5-0 |
9-0 |
8-0 |
12-0 |
Humanitarian |
| Hawai'l | 4-3 |
5-5 |
5-3 |
6-7 |
|
| San Jose State | 4-2 |
6-4 |
4-3 |
6-6 |
|
| Nevada | 3-2 |
5-4 |
5-3 |
7-5 |
New Mexico |
| Louisiana Tech | 3-2 |
5-4 |
5-3 |
7-5 |
|
| Fresno State | 2-3 |
5-4 |
4-4 |
7-5 |
Hawai'i |
| Open bowls | NONE | ||||
| Unassigned | Louisiana Tech, San Jose State | ||||
| Sun Belt Conference | |||||
| Overview | Cincinnati's win over WVU put the Bears in the driver's seat, but Pitt and West Virginia can still get the Big East's BCS bid. | ||||
| Bowl Tie-Ins (1) | New Orleans | ||||
| Possible champs | ULL, Troy, FIU, Arkansas State, FAU, MTSU | ||||
| Current positions | Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Bowl | ||
| Louisiana Lafayette | 4-0 |
5-4 |
6-1 |
7-5 |
|
| Troy | 4-1 |
6-3 |
6-1 |
8-4 |
New Orleans |
| Florida Int'l | 3-2 |
4-5 |
4-4 |
5-7 |
|
| Arkansas State | 2-2 |
4-5 |
3-4 |
5-7 |
|
| Florida Atlantic | 2-2 |
4-5 |
3-4 |
5-7 |
|
| M. Tennessee | 2-3 |
3-6 |
4-4 |
5-7 |
|
| Open bowls | NONE | ||||
| Unassigned | Lousiana Lafayette | ||||
| OPEN BOWL BERTHS (5) | UNASSIGNED TEAMS (10) |
| papajohns.com (projected vs. Connecticut) Independence (two openings) Texas (projected vs. West Virginia) St. Petersburg (projected vs. Memphis) Motor City (projected vs. Central Michigan) |
Virginia Clemson UNLV Houston Northern Illinois Akron Buffalo Bowling Green Louisiana Tech Louisiana Lafayette |
| Bowl | Opponents | |
| BCS National Championship | Florida | Oklahoma |
| Sugar | Alabama | Ohio State |
| Orange | North Carolina | Cincinnati |
| Rose | Southern Cal | Penn State |
| Fiesta | Texas Tech | Utah |
| Eaglebank | Navy | Boston College |
| New Mexico | Nevada | Colorado State |
St. Petersburg |
Memphis | Open Big East - UNLV |
| Las Vegas | Texas Christian | Arizona |
| New Orleans | Troy | Rice |
| Poinsettia | Brigham Young | PAC 10 Open |
| Hawai'i | Fresno State | California |
| Motor City | Central Michigan | Big 10 Open - Virginia |
| Meineke Car Care | Georgia Tech | South Florida |
| Champs Sports | Virginia Tech | Iowa |
| Emerald | PAC 10 Open - Akron | Wake Forest |
| Independence | Big XII Open - Clemson | SEC Open - LA Lafayette |
| papajohns.com | Connecticut | SEC Open |
| Alamo | Oklahoma State | Minnesota |
| Humanitaritian | Boise State | Maryland |
| Holiday | Oregon State | Missouri |
| Texas | West Virginia | Big XII Open - Houston |
| Armed Forces | Air Force | East Carolina |
| Sun | Oregon | Pittsburgh |
| Music City | Vanderbilt | Miami (FL) |
| Insight.com | Wisconson | Kansas |
| Chick-fil-A | Florida State | Kentucky |
| Outback | Louisiana State | Northwestern |
| Capital One | Georgia | Michigan State |
| Gator | Nebraska | Notre Dame |
| Cotton | South Carolina | Texas |
| Liberty | Tulsa | Mississippi |
| International | Ball State | Louisville |
| GMAC | Western Michigan | Texas El Paso |
Assuming no major upsets or unexpected season-ending runs, nine of the ten BCS slots are filled (at least by conference). The Big XII and SEC will get two teams each--Texas Tech, Texas or Oklahoma and Alabama and Florida, respectively. The ACC, Pac-10, Big East, and Big 10 champions add four more. If Utah beats BYU, it gets an automatic "BCS-buster" slot, leaving few candidates for the final berth. No conference can have more than two representatives in the BCS games, or even if the Big XII North champion (probably Missouri) wins the conference championshp game, two Big XII South powers would be left out. Georgia can't go for the same reason.
The tenth-team candidates are probably limited to four teams:
• Southern Cal, if Oregon State wins the Pac-10
• Boise State, if they win out
• The Big Ten runner-up - Ohio State or Michigan State
If Oregon State wins the Pac-10 and therefore the Rose Bowl berth, Southern Cal will certainly be the other team, but if not, the question will be whether the bowls prefer a 10-2 Big Ten team to an undefeated WAC team, even no that provided perhaps the most exciting bowl game in history.
| SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 9, 2008 |
With the Vols humiliating loss to Wyoming (the seventh place MWC team), Tennessee joins Michigan as marquee programs that will not be bowling this year. Other major disappointments yet to earn bowl eligibility include Clemson, which must win 2 of its last 3 (Duke, Virginia, South Carolina); Arizona State, which must sweep Washington State, UCLA, and Arizona; Notre Dame, which must beat Navy or Syracuse (because they certainly won't beat Southern Cal); Vanderbilt, which started 5-1 and now must beat Kentucky, Tennessee or Wake Forest.
There are currently 50 bowl-eligible teams for the FBS's 68 bowl slots. An additional 22 teams are one win away:
| Team | Conference | Record | Remaining opponents |
| Virginia | ACC | 5-5 | Clemson, Virginia Tech |
| Illinois | Big 10 | 5-5 | Ohio State, Northwestern |
| Wisconsin | Big 10 | 5-5 | Minnesota, Cal Poly |
| Colorado | Big XII | 5-5 | Oklahoma State, Nebraska |
| Louisville | Big East | 5-4 | Cincinnati, West Virginia, Rutgers |
| Notre Dame | Independent | 5-4 | Navy, Syracuse, Southern Cal |
| Akron | MAC | 5-4 | Buffalo, Ohio, Temple |
| Buffalo | MAC | 5-4 | Akron, Bowling Green, Kent State |
| Bowling Green | MAC | 5-5 | Buffalo, Toledo |
| Northern Illinois | MAC | 5-4 | Central Michigan, Kent State, Navy |
| Stanford | PAC | 5-5 | Southern Cal, California |
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 5-4 | Kentucky, Tennessee, Wake Forest |
| Mississippi | SEC | 5-4 | Louisiana Monroe, LSU, Mississippi State |
| Auburn | SEC | 5-5 | Georgia, Alabama |
| Louisiana Lafayette | Sun Belt | 5-4 | Florida Atlantic, Troy, Middle Tennessee |
| Memphis | C-USA | 5-5 | Central Florida, Tulane |
| Houston | C-USA | 5-4 | Tulsa, UTEP, Rice |
| Hawai'i | WAC | 5-4 | Idaho, Washington State, Cincinnati |
| San Jose State | WAC | 5-4 | Nevada, Fresno State |
| Nevada | WAC | 5-4 | San Jose State, Boise State, Louisiana Tech |
| Louisiana Tech | WAC | 5-4 | Utah State, New Mexico State, Nevada |
| Fresno State | WAC | 5-4 | New Mexico State, San Jose State, Boise State |
With an additional 21 teams still capable of getting the requisite six wins, the NCAA may avoid the embarrassment of having to approve ineligible teams to fill their bowl slots.
Finally, here's an update of the national championship race:
1 |
Texas Tech (12-10) | 10-0 |
IDLE, @Oklahoma (9-1), Baylor (3-7), Big XII Championship* | 11-1 |
2 |
Alabama (7-11) | 10-0 |
Mississippi State (3-6), IDLE, Auburn (4-5), SEC Championship* | 11-2 |
3 |
Texas (13-14) | 9-1 |
@Kansas (6-4), IDLE, Texas A&M (4-6), Big XII Championship* | 11-1 |
5 |
Florida (17-12) | 8-1 |
South Carolina (7-3), Citadel (3-7), @Florida State (7-2), SEC Championship* | 12-1 |
8 |
Oklahoma (18-2) | 9-1 |
Texas Tech (10-0), IDLE, @Oklahoma State (8-2), Big XII Championship* | 10-2 |
9 |
Southern Cal (13-15) | 8-1 |
@Stanford (5-5), IDLE, Notre Dame (5-4), @UCLA (3-6) | 11-1 |
6 |
Utah (10-10) | 10-0 |
@San Diego State (1-9), Brigham Young (9-1) | 12-0 |
4 |
Boise State (11-17) | 9-0 |
@Idaho (2-8), @Nevada (5-4), Fresno State (5-4) | 12-0 |
| * If qualified | ||||
| Note: Ball State is also undefeated but has no chance of playing for the national championship; Utah and Boise State are also highly unlikely | ||||
| FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2008 |
In the category of everyone-loves-a-trainwreck, how about the ACC? After Maryland's loss to Virginia Tech last night, 11 of the 12 ACC teams remain in the hunt for the league championship game and an ill-deserved BCS bowl bid. To show how muddled the situation is, even Georgia Tech, the current Coastal division leader has a rocky path. Beat North Carolina Saturday and Miami in two weeks, and they're in, right? Not so fast...Virginia Tech and Virginia also only have two losses. If the Hokies beat Miami and Duke, and the Cavaliers beat Wake Forest and Clemson, then the winner of the season-ending game between those two decides the division title. Virgina win and they're in because they beat Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech wins, and Georgia Tech's in because the Yellowjackets beat the Hokies. Even Duke, despite having only one conference win at the moment (over Virginia) has a path (albeit a far-fetched one). If they win out against NC State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina; Georgia Tech loses to North Carolina and Miami; Miami loses to Virginia Tech and North Carolina State; Virginia Tech loses to Virginia; Virginia loses to Wake Forest or Clemson; and North Carolina loses to Maryland or North Carolina State, then the Blue Demons go to Atlanta! But I calculate the odds at about 1 out of 60,000 for all that to happen.
In the Atlantic division, at least Maryland and Boston College control their own destinies. If they win their remaining games against North Carloina and FSU (Terps) and FSU and Wake Forest (Eagles), then their season-ending match-up will decided the division. Florida State, Wake Forest, and Clemson can all win the Atlantic, but each needs some help. Only North Carolina State, currently the only team with a winless ACC record, is out of the race.
| MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2008 |
Despite Texas' loss to Texas Tech, the Longhorns remain in the national championship picture. If the Red Raiders lose and three or more Big 12 South teams finish with identical records, which could happen if Oklahoma beats Texas Tech, the title is decided based on the following rules:
1. The records of the three teams will be compared against each other
2. The records of the three teams will be compared within their division
3. The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest
placed teams in their division in order of fi nish (4, 5 and 6)
4. The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference
opponents;
5. The highest ranked team in the first Bowl Championship Series Poll following
the completion of Big 12 regular season conference play shall be the representative
6. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games]
shall be the representative
7. The representative will be chosen by draw.
So, here's an update of the national championship race:
1 |
Alabama (13-13) | 9-0 |
@Louisiana State (6-2), Mississippi State (3-6), IDLE, Auburn (4-5), SEC Championship* | 11-2 |
2 |
Texas Tech (18-8) | 9-0 |
Oklahoma State (8-1), IDLE, @Oklahoma (8-1), Baylor (3-6), Big XII Championship* | 11-1 |
3 |
Texas (13-14) | 8-1 |
Baylor (3-6), @Kansas (6-3), IDLE, Texas A&M (4-5), Big XII Championship* | 11-1 |
5 |
Florida (20-14) | 7-1 |
@Vanderbilt (5-3), South Carolina (6-3), Citadel (3-6), @Florida State (6-2), SEC Championship* | 12-1 |
6 |
Penn State (16-12) | 9-0 |
IDLE, @Iowa (5-4), Indiana(3-6), Michigan State (8-2) | 12-0 |
9 |
Oklahoma (21-6) | 8-1 |
@Texas A&M (4-5), Texas Tech (9-0), IDLE, @Oklahoma State (8-1), Big XII Championship* | 10-2 |
10 |
Oklahoma State (21-6) | 8-1 |
@Texas Tech (9-0), @Colorado (4-5), IDLE, Oklahoma (8-1), Big XII Championship* | 10-2 |
11 |
Southern Cal (17-14) | 7-1 |
California (6-2), @Stanford (5-4), IDLE, Notre Dame (5-3), @UCLA (3-5) | 11-1 |
8 |
Utah (18-10) | 9-0 |
Texas Christian (9-1), @San Diego State (1-8), Brigham Young (8-1) | 12-0 |
4 |
Boise State (13-22) | 8-0 |
Utah State (2-7), @Idaho (2-8), @Nevada (4-4), Fresno State (5-3) | 12-0 |
| * If qualified | ||||
Games likely to decide the NCG opponents
Next week: Alabama @ LSU, Okahoma State @ Texas Tech, Cal @ USC, TCU @ Utah
11/15: Texas Tech @ Oklahoma
11/22: BYU @ Utah
11/29: Florida @ Florida State, Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State
12/5: SEC Championship, Big 12 Championship
Utah's path remains open, particularly because their opponents for their two remaining big games (TCU and BYU) both won yesterday. It would, however, probably requires the Big 12's Big Four to all lose a second game (possible, but highly unlikely) and Florida to lose again or Penn State to lose. Boise State has no real chance to move up much after three of their four remaining opponents lost yesterday (and the other was idle). Tulsa, never really a factor, lost to Arkansas. Ball State, the only other remaining unbeaten, has no chance.
While the Big XII and the SEC slug it out for title honors, it seems no one
wants to win the ACC (either division), the MAC East, and C-USA East. Maryland,
Georgia Tech, Akron/Buffalo, and Marshall, respectively, currently sit in first
place in those, but probably not for long.
| MONDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2008 |
Remaining national championship contenders (current combined opponent record, not including conference championships) and schedule
1 |
Texas (19-13) | 8-0 |
@Texas Tech (8-0), Baylor (3-5), @Kansas (5-3), IDLE, Texas A&M (3-5), Big XII Championship* | 13-0 |
2 |
Alabama (16-14) | 8-0 |
Arkansas State (4-3), @Louisiana State (5-2), Mississippi State (3-5), IDLE, Auburn (4-4), SEC Championship* | 11-2 |
5 |
Penn State (15-10) | 9-0 |
IDLE, @Iowa (5-3), Indiana(3-5), Michigan State (7-2) | 12-0 |
4 |
Texas Tech ((25-7) | 8-0 |
Texas (8-0), Oklahoma State (7-1), IDLE, @Oklahoma (7-1), Baylor (3-5), Big XII Championship* | 10-2 |
9 |
Florida (26-13) | 6-1 |
Georgia (7-1), @Vanderbilt (5-3), South Carolina (5-3), Citadel (3-5), @Florida State (6-1), SEC Championship* | 12-1 |
10 |
Georgia (21-10) | 7-1 |
Florida (6-1), @Kentucky (5-3), @Auburn (4-4), IDLE, Georgia Tech (6-2), SEC Championship* | 10-2 |
11 |
Oklahoma (23-9) | 7-1 |
Nebraska (5-3), @Texas A&M (3-5), Texas Tech (8-0), IDLE, @Oklahoma State (7-1), Big XII Championship* | 10-2 |
12 |
Southern Cal (17-20) | 6-1 |
Washington (0-7), California (5-2), @Stanford (4-4), IDLE, Notre Dame (5-2), @UCLA (3-5) | 11-1 |
8 |
Utah (20-14) | 8-0 |
@New Mexico (4-5), Texas Christian (8-1), @San Diego State (1-7), Brigham Young (7-1) | 12-0 |
3 |
Boise State (15-22) | 7-0 |
@New Mexico State (3-4), Utah State (1-7), @Idaho (2-7), @Nevada (4-4), Fresno State (5-2) | 12-0 |
| * If qualified | ||||
If Texas gets by Texas Tech, the Longhorns have a clear path to the Big XII Championship (probably a re-match with Missouri or Kansas). Texas Tech has the toughest path of the BCS-conference unbeatens - their next three opponents have a combined record of 22-2. Alabama has LSU and arch-rival and nemesis Auburn to deal with to even get to the SEC Championship. While Iowa and Michigan State aren't pushovers, Penn State has the easiest route to the National Championship Game; win out and they're probably in (assuming Alabama or Texas stumbles). The two "BCS-Busters" (Utah and Boise State) have a difficult task convincing poll voters to give them enough votes to move to #2, even if all of the BCS-conference teams lose. For Boise State, the task is particularly tough because none of their next four opponents have a winning record. Utah has a good shot at a 12-0 season because their two remaining tough games (Texas Christian and Brigham Young) are at home.
An unlikely (but plausible) route to the ultimate BCS-buster, a Utah spot in the BCS National Championship Game (assumes Utah wins all remaining games): Nov 3 BCS: Utes jump from 10 to 8 in the BCS rankings after Texas Tech
loses to Texas and Florida loses to Georgia Nov 10 BCS: Utes climb to 6 after Oklahoma State loses to Texas Tech
and Alabama loses at LSU Nov 17 BCS: Utes remain #6 Nov 24 BCS: Utes climb to 5 when Michigan State upsets Penn State Dec 1 BCS: Utes jump to 3 when Notre Dame shocks Southern Cal and Oklahoma
State beats Oklahoma Dec 8 BCS: Utah climbs to 2 and gets a berth in the NCG against Texas
when Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC Championship |
This weeks BCS bowl projections/predictions
NCG: Texas vs. Penn State
Rose: Ohio State vs. Southern Cal
Orange: Florida State vs. Utah
Fiesta: Oklahoma State vs. Alabama
Sugar: Florida vs. West Virginia
Bottom-rated teams:
FBS: North Texas (0-8)
FCS: Campbell (1-7)
D2: Cheney (0-9)
D3: Principia (0-8)
NAIA: Haskell (0-7)
JUCO: Pima (0-8)
COA: San Bernardino Valley (0-7)
| FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2008 |
In a little sidetrip from this year's season, we look at several potential schools moving into FBS football in the next few years. Western Kentucky in the final stages of the transition, playing a full FBS schedule this season, currently 2-6 and ranked 105th among the 120 FBS schools in my system. On the horizon are three possible moves from FCS to FBS: Texas State (San Marcos), Jacksonville State, and Georgia Southern, but the most audacious moves come from two schools currently not playing football. South Alabama (Mobile) plans to start playing at the FCS level next year, play a full schedule in 2010 and begin the three-year transition to FBS in 2011. In addition, the University of Texas San Antonio is studying a similar FCS to FBS start-up, perhaps in 2010. Speculation is that South Alabama would join the Sun Belt Conference, while UT-San Antonio would be in Conference USA.
| SUNDAY, OCTOBER 19, 2008 |
After the Big XII dominated the college football news, next week's spotlight moves to the Big 10 for the Penn State Nittany Lions travel to Columbus to take on the Ohio State. The Buckeye offense finally woke up against Michigan State, and it will have to be in top form to challenge the Nittany Lions. Other big games include Georgia at LSU and, back in the Big XII, Texas vs. surprising Oklahoma State and Kansas vs. Texas Tech. Watch for the Jayhawks to knock the Red Raiders from the unbeaten ranks. A trio of big games highlight the topsy-turvy ACC schedule with Georgia Tech hosting resurgent Virginia; Boston College traveling to North Carolina, and Virginia Tech playing Florida State. While none of these have any bearing on the national championship, they might clarify the ACC.
This weeks BCS bowl projections
NCG: Texas vs. Penn State
Rose: Ohio State vs. Southern Cal
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Utah
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Sugar: Florida vs. Pittsburgh
The big game of next weekend might be in the FCS, where CAA South leaders James Madison and Villanova meet in Philadelphia. In D2 Abilene Christian and Tarleton State meet in a huge Lone Star Conference match-up. In D3, Wisconsin-Whitewater (1) and Mount Union (2) appear to be heading for another national championship match-up.
| MONDAY, OCTOBER 13, 2008 |
In case there's any doubt what conferences rule the Football Championship Subdivision (FBS) of Division 1 college football, consider the following:
Big
XII |
SEC |
Big
10 |
PAC
10 |
ACC |
BE |
MWC |
WAC |
MAC |
CUSA |
Sun |
|
| Top 10 | 3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
| Top 25 | 6 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
| Highest | 2 |
1 |
6 |
11 |
13 |
22 |
8 |
5 |
7 |
9 |
54 |
| Non-conf W/L | .792 |
.848 |
.756 |
.464 |
.762 |
.647 |
.676 |
.500 |
.404 |
.372 |
.276 |
| Average Rating | 109.33 |
107.96 |
105.00 |
96.95 |
108.41 |
103.00 |
100.67 |
95.47 |
92.20 |
92.28 |
86.48 |
From the data, the Big XII is clearly the top conference so far this year,
with the SEC close behind followed by the ACC, the Big 10, the Big East,
the Mountain West, the PAC Ten, WAC, MAC, Conference USA, and Sun Belt.
BCS Bowl Projections (STILL very early)
NCG: Texas vs. Alabama
Rose: Penn State vs. Southern Cal
Orange: Virginia Tech vs. Utah
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Georgia
Sugar: Florida vs. Pittsburgh
Although some are long-shots, there are probably ten remaining contenders for
the two spots in the BCS National Championship Game. Here are
Their remaining schedules and the current record of their opponents:
| ALABAMA (19-17) Mississippi (3-3) Tennessee (2-4) Arkansas State (4-2) Louisiana State (4-1) Mississippi State (2-4) Auburn (4-3) SEC Championship* |
TEXAS (27-9) Missouri (5-1) Oklahoma State (6-0) Texas Tech (6-0) Baylor (3-3) Kansas (5-1) Texas A&M (2-4) Big 12 Championship* |
OKLA. STATE (25-11) Baylor (3-3) Texas (6-0) Iowa State (2-4) Texas Tech (6-0) Colorado (3-3) Oklahoma (5-1) Big 12 Championship * |
TEXAS TECH (27-9) Texas A&M (2-4) Kansas (5-1) Texas (6-0) Oklahoma State (6-0) Oklahoma (5-1) Baylor (3-3) Big 12 Championship* |
PENN STATE (20-13) Michigan (2-4) Ohio State (6-1) Iowa (4-3) Indiana (2-4) Michigan State (6-1) |
| FLORIDA (26-10) Kentucky (4-2) Georgia (5-1) Vanderbilt (5-1) South Carolina (5-2) The Citadel (3-3), FCS Florida State (4-1) |
SOUTHERN CAL (19-23) Washington State (1-6) Arizona (4-2) Washington (0-5) California (4-1) Stanford (4-3) Notre Dame (4-2) UCLA (2-4) |
OKLAHOMA (26-10) Kansas (5-1) Kansas State (4-2) Nebraska (3-3) Texas A&M (2-4) Texas Tech (6-0) Oklahoma State (6-0) Big 12 Championship* |
GEORGIA (27-9) Vanderbilt (5-1) Louisiana State (4-1) Florida (5-1) Kentucky (4-2) Auburn (4-3) Georgia Tech (5-1) SEC Championship* |
MISSOURI (23-13) Texas (6-0) Colorado (3-3) Baylor (3-3) Kansas State (4-2) Iowa State (2-4) Kansas (5-1) Big 12 Championship* |
| MONDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2008 |
Now that the Big XII season starts in earnest, things will probably change, but for now, the conference sports an amazing five of the top seven teams: Missouri (2), Texas (3), Oklahoma (4) , Texas Tech (5), and Oklahoma State (7). Texas and Oklahoma face each other Saturday, as do Missouri and Oklahoma State, while Texas Tech gets a Nebraska team smarting from the Missouri humiliation. At least two of these will drop a bit, although losing to an unbeaten team doesn't cost many points.
In the meantime, the not-so-Big East and the PAC Ten have replaced the ACC as weakest FBS conferences. Only Cal (16) and South Florida (21) sits in the top 25 (USC is #26), while there are now three ACC teams there: Virginia Tech (14), Georgia Tech (17), and North Carolina (20).
Remember, my ratings are strictly based on current season on-field performance. If you're wondering how USC can only rate 26th, here's a breakdown of their season to date:
| Result | Value |
| Beat Virginia, 52-7 | 1.377 |
| Beat Ohio State, 35-3 | 1.858 |
| Lost to Oregon State, 21-27 | -1.397 |
| Beat Oregon, 44-10 | 1.314 |
| Rating | 7.88 |
| Normalized | 115.42 |
| Remaining unbeaten teams | ||
| Alabama | 6-0 |
Mississippi, @ Tennessee, Arkansas State, @LSU, Mississippi state, Auburn |
| Missouri | 5-0 |
Oklahoma State, @Texas, Colorado, @Baylor, Kansas State, @Iowa State, Kansas |
| Texas | 5-0 |
Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, @Texas Tech, Baylor, @Kansas, Texas A&M |
| Oklahoma | 5-0 |
@Texas, Kansas, @Kansas State, Nebraska, @Texas A&M, Texas Tech, @Oklahoma State |
| Texas Tech | 5-0 |
Nebraska, @Texas A&M, @Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State, @Oklahoma, Baylor |
| Vanderbilt | 5-0 |
@Mississippi State, @Georgia, Duke, Florida, @Kentucky, Tennessee, @Wake Forest |
| Oklahoma State | 5-0 |
@Missouri, Baylor, @Texas, Iowa State, @Texas Tech, @Colorado, Oklahoma |
| Ball State | 6-0 |
@Western Kentucky, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, @Miami (OH), @Central Michigan, Western Michigan |
| Tulsa | 5-0 |
@SMU, Texas El Paso, Central Florida, @Arkansas, @Houston, Tulane, @Marshall |
| Penn State | 6-0 |
@Wisconsin, Michigan, @Ohio State, @Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State |
| Utah | 6-0 |
@Wyoming, Colorado State, @New Mexico, TCU, @San Diego State, Brigham Young |
| Boise State | 4-0 |
@Southern Miss, Hawaii, @San Jose State, @New Mexico State, Utah State, @Idaho, @Nevada, Fresno State |
| Northwestern | 5-0 |
Michigan State, Purdue, @Indiana, @Minnesota, Ohio State, @Michigan, Illinois |
| Louisiana State | 4-0 |
@Florida, @South Carolina, Georgia, Tulane, Alabama, Troy, Mississippi, @Arkansas |
| Brigham Young | 5-0 |
New Mexico, @TCU, UNLV, @Colorado State, San Diego State, @Air Force, @Utah |
Looking at the Big XII, Texas faces four consecutive currently-unbeaten team (Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech) over the next four weeks! Missouri may have the "easiest" path because they play only two (Oklahoma State and Texas) of the unbeaten five. Oklahoma State has the toughest road, playing all four other unbeatens, three (Missouri, Texas and Texas Tech) on the road.
This week's BCS projections (still very early):
| Rose Bowl | January 1 | Big 10-PAC 10 | Penn State | Southern Cal |
| Orange Bowl | January 1 | ACC-Pick C | Virginia Tech | Brigham Young |
| Sugar Bowl | January 2 | SEC-Pick B | LSU | Pitt |
| Fiesta Bowl | January 5 | Big XII-Pick A | Missouri | Ohio State |
| BCS Championship | January 8 | BCS 1-BCS 2 | Oklahoma | Alabama |
| THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 25, 2008 |
Well...so much for those very early BCS projections! Tonight's shocking 27-21
upset of Southern Cal by Oregon State is one more reason to love college football.
Biggest winner (other than the Beavers themselves): Penn State, which slaughtered
OSU, 45-14 three weeks ago.
Biggest loser (other than the Trojans themselves): Ohio State, which lost to
USC last week because I still think the Buckeyes and Trojans will win their
respective conference titles, possibly settin up a rematch in the Rose Bowl.
| TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 23, 2008 |
A VERY early look at the BCS bowls:
| Rose Bowl | January 1 | Big 10-PAC 10 | Ohio State | LSU1 |
| Orange Bowl | January 1 | ACC-Pick C | Clemson | Brigham Young |
| Sugar Bowl | January 2 | SEC-Pick B | Georgia | South Florida |
| Fiesta Bowl | January 5 | Big XII-Pick A | Missouri | Penn State |
| BCS Championship | January 8 | BCS 1-BCS 2 | Southern California | Oklahoma |
1Buckeye fans wouldn't be happy about that...another January match-up with the
SEC, but right now it doesn't look like any other PAC 10 team will be worthy
of a BCS game.
| SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 2008 |
I decided to go ahead and publish the ratings this week even though there's still a lot of instablity in the numbers with so few games. Even so, Southern Cal shows up as #1 in my numbers, but with the PAC 10's well-documented flop for far this year, they may not stay there as they enter the conference schedule. Of course, with no apparent challenger in the league, the Trojans are likely to finish the season undefeated, gaining a certain BCS Championship berth (probably against Missouri or Oklahoma unless an SEC team can finish with only one loss). Looking ahead at USC's schedule:
Oregon State (1-2 with a loss to Stanford)
Oregon (3-1, lost to Boise State yesterday)
Arizona State (2-2, lost to UNLV)
Washington State (1-3, only win over FCS Portland State)
Arizona (3-1, wins over Idaho, Toledo, UCLA; lost to New Mexico-which lost to
Tulsa yesterday, 56-14)
Washington (0-3, outscored 44-127)
California (2-1, started strong but then whipped by Maryland)
Stanford (2-2, lost 31-14 to TCU)
Notre Dame (2-1, may improve as season progress, but absolutely NO offense yesterday
vs. Michigan State)
UCLA (BYU 59, UCLA 0...enough said)
My conference ratings (an average of the member team ratings) also show how the PAC 10 stands:
Southeastern 109.84
Big Ten 108.48
Big XII 109.47
Atlantic Coast 107.62
Mountain West 101.51
Big East 98.24
PAC Ten 98.46
Western Athletic 95.42
Mid-American 91.41
Conference-USA 92.11
Independents 85.07
Sun Belt 87.13
The obvious big winner so far this year is the Mountain West. Its three unbeaten teams (BYU, Utah, and TCU...but they meet Oklahoma next week) look like a good bet to produce a so-called "BCS-buster." Throw in UNLV and Air Force (both 3-1 with only loss to Utah), and the conference definitely deserves its #5 spot.
And for all the talk about the ACC's weakness, it doesn't show up in the numbers. The conference is a close fourth to the big three--SEC, Big Ten, Big XII.
| SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 7, 2008 |
Not much excitement yet in college football. Only two FCS (formerly 1-AA) teams beat FBS teams: Cal Poly over San Diego State (who then almost beat Notre Dame) and New Hampshire over Army. Things start to change this week, however, with the marquee Southern Cal-Ohio State match-up, although even that may have lost a little luster with the Buckeyes narrow win over Ohio University.
Because my ratings are solely based on current year on-field performance, they don't have much meaning until more games have been played, but Southern Cal has already risen to the top (followed by Troy, Florida, Kentucky, and East Carolina). Ohio State is at 47 thanks to wins over Youngstown (which then lost to South Dakota State, 40-7) and the Bobcats. Next week's other big game - in terms of rankings - is Kansas (22) vs. South Florida (11). In the meantime, the once-mighty Florida State Seminoles play their second FCS opponent. This team Chattanooga will have a score piled up against them. As I understand it, FSU will only be able to count one of these wins toward the six required for bowl eligibility.
| FRIDAY, AUGUST 22, 2008 |
The 2008 college football season is just around the corner, with the defending D2 national champion Valdosta State Blazers hosting Fort Valley State tomorrow. Major college football opens Thursday, August 28. The near season brings some changes at all levels of college football.
Division 1A (Football Bowl Series) teams will be competing for two additional bowl games, the Congressional Bowl in Washington, DC and the St. Petersburg Bowl in Florida, bringing the total number of bowls in 34. The addition of these games makes it certain that a number of .500 teams will again be rewarded with post-season play. There's ever the possibility there won't be enough qualifying teams, particularly if we see some more 1AA (Football Championship Series) upsets early in the season. With the addition of Western Kentucky to the 1A status, there are 120 teams for 68 bowl spots. We can expect some compelling stinkers in the bowl season.
Nine new teams will begin or resume intercollegiate competition this season:
The NCAA's decision to allow 1A (FBS) teams to count one game against 1AA (FCS) teams has created an avalache of silly early-season mismatches. such as Arizona State-Northern Arizona, Arkansas-Western Illinois, Boston College-Rhode Island, Cincinnati-Eastern Kentucky, Colorado-Eastern Washington, Florida State-Western Carolina, Georgia (pre-season #1 in many lists)-Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech-Jacksonville State, Illinois-Eastern Illinois, Kentucky-Norfolk State, Louisville-Tennessee Tech, Miami-Charleston Southern, Mississippi-Samford, Missouri-Southeast Missouri, North Carolina-McNeese State, Ohio State-Youngstown, Oklahoma-Chattanooga, Purdue-Northern Colorado, Rutgers-Morgan State, South Carolina-Wofford, South Florida-Te